561 Ontario St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$379,000

36 bd · None ba · 8,005 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1950 4,305 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

ALL BRICK SIX UNITS on a CORNER LOT!!!. .. .. .. .. .. .. at this unbelievable price. Every 2 unit with its very own man door, separate basements, separate attic and utilities. Roof is newer, some new windows and mechanical updates. All utilities are separate with each having their individual gas and electric meters. Five units are rented and one ready to rent out. Great tenants all willing to stay. Showings start at Open house on Saturday 3/14/2026 from 1:00-3:00 PM. Offers due on Tuesday, 3/17/2026 at 12pm.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Separate basements
• Separate attic

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SEPARATE BASEMENTS
• SEPARATE ATTIC
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• MECHANICAL UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive. Per door: $693/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $379k).
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,126/mo this rent would consume 245% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $325k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $379,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.02%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $246,246
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $750,478
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,706
• Net cashflow: $4,158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,863

Max offer price $379,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,372	-5% $4,265	+0% $4,158	+5% $4,051	+10% $3,943
Rent	-10% $3,516	-5% $3,837	+0% $4,158	+5% $4,479	+10% $4,800
Rate	-1.0pp $4,349	-0.5pp $4,254	base $4,158	+0.5pp $4,060	+1.0pp $3,960

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	1	$8,124
Total (6 units)			$8,126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $379,000 Active
3. 2020-05-04
   soldstatus $325,000
4. 2020-04-30
   soldstatus $325,000 Closed Sale or Rented
5. 2020-01-03
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
6. 2019-10-17
   listed $325,000 Active
7. 2006-01-05
   soldstatus $115,000
8. 1995-11-20
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,900 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,505/yr (+$209/mo · 179.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $97,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,801
• − Management: −$7,801
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable income: $46,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,127
• After-tax cash flow: $38,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+215.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $379,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $325,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-01-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2019-10-17 Listed $325,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.