15995 Caldera Ln #69 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$389,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Condo public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2005 $516/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location. Location. With a West of 75 community and minutes to the beautiful beaches and shopping, this newly refreshed 3BR 2.5 bath townhome is move in ready! A westerly facing lanai is private and with a nature wooded view. Open concept first flooring living space, new lighting, brand new appliances, freshly painted, single garage and much much more!! The community geo thermal pool is across the street and there are tennis courts and a basketball court for the active lifestyle. All 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths are located upstairs along with laundry room. This pristine townhouse feels BRAND NEW!! Milano is a well maintained community, Pulte constructed with low maintenance fees and is pet friendly. You just can't beat this one!!!

Key facts

• Quiet preserve views
• Western exposure
• Two story townhome

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• WESTERN EXPOSURE
• QUIET PRESERVE VIEWS
• PRIME NORTH NAPLES LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 256 units and 6 units per building; 1 unit per floor; building has 2 floors; Zoning: PUD
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (professional management); Quarterly HOA fee; Maintenance covers cable, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, street lights; Community amenities: basketball, BBQ/picnic area, clubhouse, community pool, community spa/hot tub, dog park, sidewalks, streetlights, tennis court; Non-gated community; Total annual recurring HOA fees: $6,192; One-time fees: $150

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (paved); Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Residential townhouse; 2 stories; Rear exposure faces west; Located in MILANO development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Built in 2005; Regular lot
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access; Landscaped area view; Restrictions: No commercial, No RV

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom upstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Dining area (family); Dining area (living); Family room; Screened lanai/porch; Unfurnished; 2-story floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $367k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,618/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 15496% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $335k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $366,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.25%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $14,747
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $71,443
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,847/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$516
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,180
• Net cashflow: $1,478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,747

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16097 Ravina Way #36 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,395	$1.52	21d	1	0.22mi
6522 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$4,500	$2.21	23d	1	0.49mi
6478 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1711	$10,000	$5.84	23d	1	0.53mi
5963 Trophy Dr #2002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	23d	1	0.62mi
6017 Trophy Dr #601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	23d	1	0.63mi
5870 3 Iron Dr Unit 4-401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$8,000	$4.90	23d	1	0.63mi
16208 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$12,500	$6.25	23d	1	0.63mi
16188 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$5,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.66mi
6029 Trophy Dr #301 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$6,000	$2.78	23d	1	0.67mi
250 Willowick Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$3,500	$2.38	23d	1	0.67mi
5885 Three Iron Dr #1102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$7,000	$4.29	23d	1	0.70mi
5630 Sherborn Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2005	$7,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.73mi
5892 Three Iron Dr #1504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$7,000	$3.90	23d	1	0.73mi
5967 Sand Wedge Ln #106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,875	$1.87	23d	1	0.74mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	21d	1	0.74mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	23d	1	0.74mi
208 Erie Dr Unit 1355591P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1754	$5,550	$3.16	13d	1	0.74mi
16432 Aberdeen Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,200	$2.04	23d	1	0.75mi
16210 Allura Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,570	$3.31	13d	18	0.76mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,500	$4.40	23d	1	0.77mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$5,750	$3.86	23d	1	0.77mi
5945 Sand Wedge Ln #1003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,000	$4.03	23d	1	0.80mi
5886 Paradise Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1922	$6,800	$3.54	23d	1	0.81mi
5941 Sand Wedge Ln #1206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$3,450	$2.24	23d	1	0.81mi
5937 Sand Wedge Ln #1507 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$6,500	$4.22	23d	1	0.82mi
5944 Sand Wedge Ln #1108 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,250	$4.23	23d	1	0.84mi
5455 Worthington Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.84mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.84mi
5940 Sand Wedge Ln #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$5,500	$3.57	23d	1	0.85mi
5923 Sand Wedge Ln #1906 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,695	$1.75	21d	1	0.85mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	23d	1	0.88mi
6000 Pinnacle Ln #2503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2150	$5,000	$2.33	23d	1	0.88mi
5928 Sand Wedge Ln #1805 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,500	$4.40	23d	1	0.90mi
5928 Sand Wedge Ln #1808 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,000	$4.06	23d	1	0.90mi
5765 Grande Reserve Way Unit 7-702 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	23d	1	0.90mi
6015 Pinnacle Ln Unit 5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2150	$7,500	$3.49	23d	1	0.92mi
6025 Pinnacle Ln Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1633	$8,000	$4.90	23d	1	0.94mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	23d	1	1.00mi
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	21d	1	1.00mi
3465 Laurel Greens Ln S #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1789	$2,550	$1.43	23d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $516 · $6,192/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $389,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $389,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $389,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $389,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $389,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    listed $2,500
11. 2026-05-07
    historical $2,500
12. 2026-04-29
    listed $2,500
13. 2026-04-01
    listed $389,900 Active
14. 2026-03-27
    historical $2,500
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $2,500
16. 2026-03-12
    historical $2,500
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $2,500
18. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus $334,900
19. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus $334,900 Sold 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Location Location. Location. With a West of 75 community and minutes to the beautiful beaches and shopping, this newly refreshed 3BR 2.5 bath townhome is move in ready! A westerly facing lanai is private and with a nature wooded view. Open concept first flooring living space, new lighting, brand new appliances, freshly painted, single garage and much much more!! The community geo thermal pool is across the street and there are tennis courts and a basketball court for the active lifestyle. All 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths are located upstairs along with laundry room. This pristine townhouse feels BRAND NEW!! Milano is a well maintained community, Pulte constructed with low maintenance fees and is pet friendly. You just can't beat this one!!!

20. 2021-06-28
    status Pending With Contingencies 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Location Location. Location. With a West of 75 community and minutes to the beautiful beaches and shopping, this newly refreshed 3BR 2.5 bath townhome is move in ready! A westerly facing lanai is private and with a nature wooded view. Open concept first flooring living space, new lighting, brand new appliances, freshly painted, single garage and much much more!! The community geo thermal pool is across the street and there are tennis courts and a basketball court for the active lifestyle. All 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths are located upstairs along with laundry room. This pristine townhouse feels BRAND NEW!! Milano is a well maintained community, Pulte constructed with low maintenance fees and is pet friendly. You just can't beat this one!!!

21. 2021-06-22
    listed $334,900 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Location Location. Location. With a West of 75 community and minutes to the beautiful beaches and shopping, this newly refreshed 3BR 2.5 bath townhome is move in ready! A westerly facing lanai is private and with a nature wooded view. Open concept first flooring living space, new lighting, brand new appliances, freshly painted, single garage and much much more!! The community geo thermal pool is across the street and there are tennis courts and a basketball court for the active lifestyle. All 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths are located upstairs along with laundry room. This pristine townhouse feels BRAND NEW!! Milano is a well maintained community, Pulte constructed with low maintenance fees and is pet friendly. You just can't beat this one!!!

22. 2012-05-16
    soldstatus $142,500 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Built in 2005!!! Newer 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home with attached garage with landscaped views. Great location off of Livingston road in desired neighborhood of Milano!!!This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

23. 2012-03-21
    listed $145,000 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Built in 2005!!! Newer 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home with attached garage with landscaped views. Great location off of Livingston road in desired neighborhood of Milano!!!This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$389/yr (+$32/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,847
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,394
• − Management: −$5,394
• − HOA: −$6,192
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $12,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,991
• After-tax cash flow: $14,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,500 FGCMLS
• 2026-05-07 Rental Removed $2,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $2,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $389,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-27 Rental Removed $2,500 FGCMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed for Rent $2,500 FGCMLS
• 2026-03-12 Rental Removed $2,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed for Rent $2,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $334,900 Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) $334,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-06-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-06-22 Listed $334,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2012-05-16 Sold (MLS) $142,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2012-03-21 Listed $145,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,847 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.