343 Applewood Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $55k · at est. ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come check out 343 Applewood Drive in "The Woodlands", a family-friendly manufactured home community that combines small-town charm with everyday convenience! This lovingly cared for home is a doublewide 'Skyline' with enough space for two cars to park off the street in addition to an attached single car carport. Inside you'll find a three seasons room, a large living room, huge kitchen with dining area, one primary bedroom with ensuite full bath, two additional bedrooms, and a second full bathroom. Outside you'll enjoy large wooden deck as well as storage shed. Residents in The Woodlands enjoy a full-sized basketball court, a modern fitness center, a playground, and the added ben

Key facts

• Three seasons room
• Garage
• Built 1989

Tags

• THREE SEASONS ROOM
• FULL SIZED BASKETBALL COURT
• MODERN FITNESS CENTER
• ATTACHED SINGLE CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease payment reported separately
• HOA & community: Monthly community fee (land lease amount listed separately); Community amenities include basketball court, fitness center, and playground

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage; Carport; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home (Skyline model); Single-story; Resale/Existing
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (all bedrooms on the first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.79%
• DSCR: 3.75
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
433 Chestnut Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$55,000	$41	91
525 Applewood Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	6mo	$50,000	$36	75
643 Birchwood Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+2%)	6mo	$69,000	$51	73
519 Applewood Dr #519	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	5mo	$42,500	$29	70
149 Crestwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	7mo	$25,000	$20	69
210 Ash St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	0mo	$75,000	$62	67
1070 Fernwood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$72,000	$54	67
901 Hollywood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$82,000	$56	64
1009 Ridgewood	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+9%)	1mo	$50,000	$34	60
464 Jim Kelly Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-10%)	2mo	$55,000	$45	58
288 Fox Hunt Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-13%)	2mo	$45,600	$39	44
1352 Fernwood Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$39,000	$34	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $42,624
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $106,434
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $55,000
3. 2026-02-06
   listed $63,000 Active
4. 2026-01-16
   historical
5. 2025-11-05
   price $89,888
6. 2025-10-16
   listed $96,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,205
• After-tax cash flow: $7,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-43.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $63,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $89,888 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $96,888 WNYREIS