446 Scarborough Ave · Natchitoches, LA 71457

$129,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 1975 2,178 sqft lot $112/sqft · 28% below area Est $179k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this well kept and affordable brick home in east Natchitoches. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. The ceramic tile and vinyl plank flooring is in great condition. Home features an electric range, a fridge just over a year old, a gas furnace, a gas water heater, a roof that's only 4-5 years old, washer and dryer hookups, hard surface driveway, a new water heater and an outside storage room. You've got to a see it to appreciate it. Give us a call!

Key facts

• Gas furnace
• Electric range
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• CERAMIC TILE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ELECTRIC RANGE
• FRIDGE JUST OVER A YEAR OLD
• GAS FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,473 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.89%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,450
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -27.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Watson Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,113 (-4%)	0mo	$170,000	$153	61
306 Williams Ave	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,233 (+6%)	16mo	$316,000	$256	54
528 Oakland Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,070 (-8%)	5mo	$179,900	$168	52
212 Paula Ln	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+8%)	1mo	$179,000	$143	51
122 Starlight Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,257 (+8%)	1mo	$184,900	$147	49
509 Watson Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,234 (+6%)	19mo	$185,000	$150	41
112 Hidden Oaks Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+11%)	4mo	$235	—	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-15,488
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,576
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71457

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $124	+0% $87	+5% $51	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $44	+0% $87	+5% $130	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $120	base $87	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,500 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,500 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,500 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $129,500 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Check out this well kept and affordable brick home in east Natchitoches. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. The ceramic tile and vinyl plank flooring is in great condition. Home features an electric range, a fridge just over a year old, a gas furnace, a gas water heater, a roof that's only 4-5 years old, washer and dryer hookups, hard surface driveway, a new water heater and an outside storage room. You've got to a see it to appreciate it. Give us a call!

18. 2026-03-12
    status Active
19. 2026-02-27
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-25
    status Active
21. 2026-02-14
    status Pending
22. 2026-01-30
    listed $129,500 Active
23. 2018-06-21
    listed $46,900
24. 2018-02-28
    listed $57,000
25. 2016-09-28
    listed $95,000
26. 2007-08-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $712 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 62.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$1,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchitoches, LA
• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 25,485

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.84%
• Current HPI: 103.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+36.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $129,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-14 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $129,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-06-21 Listed $46,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-02-28 Listed $57,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-09-28 Listed $95,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.