857 French Rd · Cheektowaga, NY 14227

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 6,534 sqft lot Est $271k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 857 French Road! A charming Cape Cod, located just minutes away from the conveniences of Transit and Union Roads, and a short drive from Stiglmeier Park. The home has great curb appeal, with low maintenance landscaping, fenced backyard, and long driveway with 2 car garage. Cozy living room, and a nice large eat-in kitchen. Bonus storage room off the 1st floor, as well as two bedrooms and the full bathroom. Upstairs are two more bedrooms, maximizing the living potential in this home. Open house on Saturday, October 4th from 11-1.

Key facts

• Bonus storage room
• Long driveway
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• BONUS STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $136,838 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Grand Prix Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+7%)	1mo	$220,000	$171	83
278 N Seine Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+4%)	1mo	$325,000	$260	81
162 Steven Dr	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	0mo	$250,000	$200	74
120 Brentwood Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,246 (+4%)	1mo	$267,555	$215	72
95 Brentwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+6%)	4mo	$287,000	$226	69
17 Oakwood Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-9%)	2mo	$291,000	$266	64
113 Rondelay Dr	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,303 (+9%)	5mo	$200,000	$153	64
247 Le Havre Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	4mo	$367,000	$298	62
4 E Toulon Dr	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$228	58
211 Sprucewood Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+5%)	3mo	$250,000	$198	57
70 Mckenzie Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+8%)	1mo	$405,000	$311	56
260 Le Havre Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,343 (+12%)	3mo	$235,000	$175	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-50,460
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-70,841
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14227

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,019/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,996

Max offer price $136,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-247	+0% $-300	+5% $-354	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-364	+0% $-300	+5% $-237	+10% $-173
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-252	base $-300	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Haley Ln Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	837	$1,358	$1.62	2d	1	0.24mi
50 Strasbourg Dr Unit Lower Cheektowaga, NY	3.0	1.0	1209	$1,700	$1.41	2d	1	0.65mi
101 Slate Creek Dr Cheektowaga, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,310	$1.93	2d	38	0.94mi
4720 Transit Rd Depew, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1299	$2,249	$1.73	2d	1	1.28mi
4845 Transit Rd Depew, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$2,255	$2.02	2d	20	1.43mi
2341 Union Rd West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	804	$2,005	$2.49	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-10-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-02
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2025-09-30
   historical
4. 2025-09-26
   price $169,400
5. 2025-09-11
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,019 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,019 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$6,019
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$6,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,621
• Household income: $68,928
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 31% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.77%
• Current HPI: 306.8358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+11.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $169,400 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,019 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.