6200 Fair Oaks Rd SE #32 · Lacey, WA 98513

$137,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $118k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely undated! This beautifully remodeled 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home has a bright open layout with laminate flooring, newer double pane windows, energy efficient ductless heating and cooling and recessed lighting throughout! The updated kitchen has quartz countertops, stainless steel stove and fridge, generous counter space and storage. The kitchen opens to the living room with electric fireplace, ceiling speakers that hookup to bluetooth and built-in shelves. The bathroom is beautifully updated with walk-in shower with glass door, appealing tile work and radiant heat floors. Off the back is a Trex deck with steps down to the fenced yard. There is also a storage shed and carport and plent

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Bright open layout
• Double pane windows

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 672; Foundation: Pillar/Post/Pier
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Lakeside Villa park with 52 homes; Park approved for sale; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Senior exemption available; Park amenities: common area, recreational area, RV parking; Land lease: $634/month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; RV parking available in park
• Utilities: Public water; Water service by Thurston PUD; Power by PSE (electric); Community septic
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Updated/remodeled; One level; Mobile home remains; Entry on pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Built as manufactured house
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Patio/porch/deck; Double pane windows; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bath; 1 half bath; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Fireplace (electric); Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room with electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $133,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6200 Fair Oaks Rd #32	0.00mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	21mo	$117,500	$175	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $14,588
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $62,635
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98513

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $613	+0% $565	+5% $518	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $490	+0% $565	+5% $641	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $600	base $565	+0.5pp $530	+1.0pp $493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,500 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,500 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,500 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,500 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,500 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $137,500 Active
18. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus $117,500 Closed
19. 2024-08-31
    status Pending
20. 2024-08-14
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $4,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $5,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,017
• Household income: $113,053
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.44%
• Current HPI: 337.436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+6.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $137,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Sold (MLS) $117,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-14 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $27 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.