15912 Valhalla Dr · Round Mountain, CA 96069

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1982 5.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your official ''Creek-side, Cabin in the Woods'' on 5 acres. 1st Floor - 2 Car Garage/Bedroom/Full Bath/Huge utility room w/ Laundry hook ups. Top Floor-Large Bedroom/Full Bath/Complete Kitchen/L Shaped Dinning Room & Living Room/Large Wood Burning Stove. Also has a large detached shop. After some TLC and deck repair this will be the ultimate place to come and unwind. The perfect mountain getaway.

Key facts

• Complete kitchen
• Detached garage
• 5.01 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM
• COMPLETE KITCHEN
• COZY WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• SPACIOUS DETACHED SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-family construction
• Exterior features: Secluded lot; Rolling slope; Dirt road access; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Has heating
• Interior features: Wood-burning stove in the living room; Fireplace; Dishwasher; Vinyl flooring; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,311 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $25 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $11,387
• Equity at exit: $55,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $56,587
• Equity at exit: $66,531

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96069

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,012/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,573

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $189,900
19. 2026-04-20
    price $209,900
20. 2026-04-15
    price $229,900
21. 2026-03-17
    listed $349,900 Active
22. 2025-08-12
    price $225,000
23. 2025-08-05
    price $245,000
24. 2025-07-28
    price $264,900
25. 2025-05-05
    listed $284,900 Active
26. 2017-09-13
    soldstatus $175,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Your official ''Creek-side, Cabin in the Woods'' on 5 acres. 1st Floor - 2 Car Garage/Bedroom/Full Bath/Huge utility room w/ Laundry hook ups. Top Floor-Large Bedroom/Full Bath/Complete Kitchen/L Shaped Dinning Room & Living Room/Large Wood Burning Stove. Also has a large detached shop. After some TLC and deck repair this will be the ultimate place to come and unwind. The perfect mountain getaway.

27. 2017-09-12
    soldstatus $175,000
28. 2017-05-31
    listed $185,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Your official ''Creek-side, Cabin in the Woods'' on 5 acres. 1st Floor - 2 Car Garage/Bedroom/Full Bath/Huge utility room w/ Laundry hook ups. Top Floor-Large Bedroom/Full Bath/Complete Kitchen/L Shaped Dinning Room & Living Room/Large Wood Burning Stove. Also has a large detached shop. After some TLC and deck repair this will be the ultimate place to come and unwind. The perfect mountain getaway.

29. 1998-06-23
    soldstatus $110,000
30. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,012
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $3,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Round Mountain

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1311
• US rank: #26653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,371

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.01%
• Current HPI: 107.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+65.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $189,900 SAOR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $209,900 SAOR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $229,900 SAOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $349,900 SAOR
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $225,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $245,000 SAOR
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $264,900 SAOR
• 2025-05-05 Listed $284,900 SAOR
• 2017-09-13 Sold (MLS) $175,000 SAOR
• 2017-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Listed $185,000 SAOR
• 1998-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,012 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.