32 Bonaire Dr · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1977 5,227 sqft lot Est $352k · 37% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12/98

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Clubhouses
• Tennis courts

Tags

• ENCLOSED REAR SUNROOM
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOLS
• CLUBHOUSES
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $50; Community amenities include pool, basketball court, clubhouse, bocce; Association fee covers trash, common areas, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: YELLOWSTONE; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas or electric range not specified
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $220,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$351,812) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,513/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,812
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Bonaire Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	99
17 Palmetto Point St	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	2mo	$382,500	$350	80
1 Miramar Ct	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	73
11 Palmetto Point St	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$314	73
25 Spanish Wells St	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$340,000	$276	67
60 Biabou Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$320,000	$260	65
61 Falmouth St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$380,000	$338	62
211 Bonaire Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+12%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	61
9 Banning Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	2mo	$385,000	$313	51
18 Morongo Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	2mo	$385,000	$313	51
76 Troumaka St	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$286,000	$232	49
9 Port Royal Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$420,000	$341	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,749
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $29,332
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	6d	1	0.64mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	2d	1	0.80mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	2d	1	0.91mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	2d	1	0.98mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	2d	1	1.24mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	2d	1	1.29mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 2005-07-27
   soldstatus $154,900
4. 1999-05-05
   soldstatus $71,000
5. 1999-04-29
   soldstatus $71,000 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12 \ \ 98

6. 1999-04-29
   soldstatus $71,000 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12 \ \ 98

7. 1999-02-22
   historical 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12 \ \ 98

8. 1998-11-30
   listed $75,900 248-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12 \ \ 98

9. 1998-11-30
   listed $75,900 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   BANANIER, RIGHT ONTO BARBADOS LEFT ONTO BONAIRE NEWER APPLIANCES CARPETS CUSTOM TREATMENTS STAY THIS BRIGHT AND NEUTRAL HOME IS TRUELY IN MOVE IN CONDITION! FURNITURE IS ALSO FOR SALE PLEASE LEAVE BUSINESS CARDS THANKS BARRY AVAILABLE TO RENT 12 \ \ 98

10. 1989-11-16
    soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,254 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,224/yr (+$102/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $1,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $4,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+209.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $220,000 MOMLS
• 2005-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $154,900 Public Records
• 1999-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-29 Sold (MLS) $71,000 MOMLS
• 1999-04-29 Sold (MLS) $71,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-02-22 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-11-30 Listed $75,900 MOMLS
• 1998-11-30 Listed $75,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1989-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,030 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.