17462 Front Beach 30 D Rd Unit 30D · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$265,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 663 sqft · Condo public records · 271 Days on market

Built 1983 $400/sqft · 25% above area Est $306k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Paradise!! PRICED TO SELL!! This beautiful 2BR/2BA is TURNKEY ready for short-term rentals or primary residence!!! This unit is conveniently located close to all the amenities in the Horizon South resort along with the beautiful sandy white beaches of Panama City Beach! Horizon South is Located on the westend of Panama City Beach. This won't last long! There are so many amenties including; 4 pools, hot tub, tennis & pickleball courts, horse shoes, game room, , 18 hole mini golf, shuffle board, & more! * measurements are approx. & should be verified *

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Pickleball courts
• 4 pools

Tags

• HORIZON SOUTH RESORT
• 4 POOLS
• HOT TUB
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.6% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Bay Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 313 students, 50% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,379 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.24%
• DSCR: 0.10
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,343
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -13.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -62.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-125,809
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.02×
• Total profit: $-224,441
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,146/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-1,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,028

Max offer price $62,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,102	-5% $-1,177	+0% $-1,252	+5% $-1,327	+10% $-1,402
Rent	-10% $-1,366	-5% $-1,309	+0% $-1,252	+5% $-1,195	+10% $-1,138
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,118	-0.5pp $-1,184	base $-1,252	+0.5pp $-1,320	+1.0pp $-1,390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17614 Front Beach Rd Unit 16D Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,600	$2.14	23d	1	0.38mi
102 Cabana Cay Cir Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,238	$1.30	15d	26	0.65mi
17784 Front Beach Rd #16 Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	385	$1,500	$3.90	23d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 265 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 262 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 252 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 251 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 250 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 249 DOM
19. 2026-04-24
    status Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to Paradise!! PRICED TO SELL!! This beautiful 2BR/2BA is TURNKEY ready for short-term rentals or primary residence!!! This unit is conveniently located close to all the amenities in the Horizon South resort along with the beautiful sandy white beaches of Panama City Beach! Horizon South is Located on the westend of Panama City Beach. This won't last long! There are so many amenties including; 4 pools, hot tub, tennis & pickleball courts, horse shoes, game room, , 18 hole mini golf, shuffle board, & more! * measurements are approx. & should be verified *

20. 2026-04-18
    historical 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to Paradise!! PRICED TO SELL!! This beautiful 2BR/2BA is TURNKEY ready for short-term rentals or primary residence!!! This unit is conveniently located close to all the amenities in the Horizon South resort along with the beautiful sandy white beaches of Panama City Beach! Horizon South is Located on the westend of Panama City Beach. This won't last long! There are so many amenties including; 4 pools, hot tub, tennis & pickleball courts, horse shoes, game room, , 18 hole mini golf, shuffle board, & more! * measurements are approx. & should be verified *

21. 2025-11-17
    price $265,000 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to Paradise!! PRICED TO SELL!! This beautiful 2BR/2BA is TURNKEY ready for short-term rentals or primary residence!!! This unit is conveniently located close to all the amenities in the Horizon South resort along with the beautiful sandy white beaches of Panama City Beach! Horizon South is Located on the westend of Panama City Beach. This won't last long! There are so many amenties including; 4 pools, hot tub, tennis & pickleball courts, horse shoes, game room, , 18 hole mini golf, shuffle board, & more! * measurements are approx. & should be verified *

22. 2025-09-18
    listed $270,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to Paradise!! PRICED TO SELL!! This beautiful 2BR/2BA is TURNKEY ready for short-term rentals or primary residence!!! This unit is conveniently located close to all the amenities in the Horizon South resort along with the beautiful sandy white beaches of Panama City Beach! Horizon South is Located on the westend of Panama City Beach. This won't last long! There are so many amenties including; 4 pools, hot tub, tennis & pickleball courts, horse shoes, game room, , 18 hole mini golf, shuffle board, & more! * measurements are approx. & should be verified *

23. 2021-12-14
    historical
24. 2021-12-14
    historical
25. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus $288,000
26. 2021-11-30
    soldstatus $288,000
27. 2021-09-20
    listed $295,000
28. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $162,500
29. 2006-09-25
    listed $245,000
30. 2005-07-15
    listed $284,900
31. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $217,000
32. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $217,000
33. 2004-08-07
    listed $215,000
34. 2004-04-06
    soldstatus $143,500
35. 2004-03-24
    soldstatus $143,500
36. 2003-05-28
    listed $144,500
37. 1999-04-30
    soldstatus $57,500
38. 1999-01-28
    listed $63,000
39. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,146 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,146 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,146
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$20,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+453.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $265,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $270,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $288,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-30 Sold (MLS) $288,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-20 Listed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records
• 2006-09-25 Listed $245,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-07-15 Listed $284,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (MLS) $217,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-08-07 Listed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records
• 2004-03-24 Sold (MLS) $143,500 CPARMLS
• 2003-05-28 Listed $144,500 CPARMLS
• 1999-04-30 Sold (MLS) $57,500 CPARMLS
• 1999-01-28 Listed $63,000 CPARMLS
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,146 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.