5 La Paca Ln · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$215,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1990 0.26 ac lot $121/sqft · 10% below area Est $265k · 19% under $115/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 217 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($998/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fountain Lake School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #49 of 238 in AR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,845
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -18.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Doblez Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-5%)	4mo	$285,000	$168	72
9 Claro Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,783 (-0%)	1mo	$211,100	$118	69
7 Velez Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-9%)	14mo	$254,000	$156	69
8 Acaso Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-3%)	11mo	$295,000	$171	59
45 Alava Way	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,854 (+4%)	2mo	$391,500	$211	58
68 Mazarron Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-2%)	15mo	$260,000	$148	58
10 Cuenca Cir	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-2%)	7mo	$375,000	$214	56
5 Estrella Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-2%)	15mo	$302,500	$173	56
41 Venado Way	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+4%)	7mo	$179,000	$96	56
42 Alicante Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+3%)	13mo	$275,000	$150	51
15 Corvera Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,042 (+14%)	7mo	$286,000	$140	44
6 Oporto Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,886 (+6%)	16mo	$420,000	$223	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-29,536
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-18,866
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,445/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,839

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Macotera Pl Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,450	$0.83	14d	1	1.06mi
4 Huesca Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	4.0	3.0	1826	$2,500	$1.37	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $215,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $215,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

19. 2026-04-12
    price $225,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

20. 2026-04-12
    price $225,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

21. 2026-01-09
    price $235,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

22. 2026-01-09
    price $235,000 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

23. 2025-11-13
    listed $240,000 Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

24. 2025-11-13
    listed $240,000 New Listing 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Bring your vision and make this home shine! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in beautiful Hot Springs Village, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout and great bones- ready for your updates and personal touch.

25. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus $200,000
26. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold
27. 2022-07-31
    status Under Contract
28. 2022-07-26
    price $210,000
29. 2022-07-06
    status Back on Market
30. 2022-06-18
    status Under Contract
31. 2022-04-24
    price $224,500
32. 2022-02-28
    listed $239,900 New Listing
33. 1996-05-06
    soldstatus $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,445
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fountain Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 0506420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $52,435
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4789
• State rank: #49 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $215,000 HSBOR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $225,000 HSBOR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $235,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $235,000 HSBOR
• 2025-11-13 Listed $240,000 HSBOR
• 2025-11-13 Listed $240,000 CARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-31 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $210,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2022-06-18 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-04-24 Price Changed $224,500 CARMLS
• 2022-02-28 Listed $239,900 CARMLS
• 1996-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,445 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.