1104 Valley Ct · Middleton, ID 83644

$334,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 0.37 ac lot $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a rare find, similar homes have sold close to $400k. This one is a light fixer, needs paint, partial flooring, finish/trim work, landscape, a project that wont scare any DIY owner. Has recently new flooring downstairs, systems are all working, could qualify FHA. Huge . 37 acre lot with fenced area at the back for a garden, and a couple large shade trees. Potentially could have RV/trailer parking on the side, has space for it, plus a 3 car garage, master bedroom upstairs, other bedrooms downstairs, located around the corner from nice greenbelt/park area.

Key facts

• Fenced area
• Large shade trees
• Greenbelt park area

Tags

• NEW FLOORING DOWNSTAIRS
• FENCED AREA
• LARGE SHADE TREES
• RV TRAILER PARKING
• GREENBELT PARK AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $248

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 covered parking spaces; RV access/parking
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1999
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Garden; Automatic sprinkler system; Public road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms — master on upper level; remaining bedrooms on lower level
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($721/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Middleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#22 in ID, #3,173 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Middleton District (suburban): math 41% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #29 of 92 in ID (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middleton Mill Creek Elementary (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C+, #102 of 357 statewide, top 29%, 755 students, 18% FRL); Middleton Middle School (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #34 of 109 statewide, top 34%, 1,007 students, 21% FRL); Middleton Academy (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #132 of 169 statewide, top 78%, 161 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 467 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,401 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-50,433
• Equity at exit: $49,800

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-39,546
• Equity at exit: $28,878

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83644

• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,558

Max offer price $334,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $155	+0% $60	+5% $-34	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-44	+0% $60	+5% $164	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $145	base $60	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
979 Peregrine Dr Middleton, ID	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,350	$1.74	5d	1	0.11mi
10996 Willis Rd Middleton, ID	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,195	$1.54	4d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $334,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 567-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $334,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$995/yr (+$83/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,529
• − Management: −$2,529
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$5,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middleton District
• NCES district ID: 1602130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,089
• Composite: 42.6/100
• National rank: #3191
• State rank: #29 of 92 in ID

Livability — Middleton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #3173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleton, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 16,293
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 16,293
• Household income: $97,293
• Rent vs Own: 8.3% rent · 91.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 141.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.72%
• Current HPI: 295.3575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $334,000 IMLS
• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.