5015 27th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1976 3,190 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This townhome is ready for a new owner. Close proximity to Texas Tech, and Marsha Sharp freeway! This property is in a great location, and needs some remodeling and touch ups. With 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms it offers plenty of space! Lots of value to be had on this one!

Key facts

• $50 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $600 annual fee (about $50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Garage faces side; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public maintained road access; City street frontage
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property with one common wall; Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a fixer
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Private yard; Back yard; City lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings; Wood-burning fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $4,756
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $18,008
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,311/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	21d	1	0.31mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	21d	1	0.45mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.46mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	14d	1	0.47mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.54mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.55mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	14d	1	0.55mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	21d	1	0.61mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.61mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	14d	1	0.62mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.65mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	21d	1	0.66mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	44d	1	0.67mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.67mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.68mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	21d	1	0.69mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.69mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.69mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.69mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.70mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.70mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.70mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.77mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.77mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.78mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	44d	1	0.79mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	14d	1	0.79mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	14d	1	0.81mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	44d	1	0.84mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.85mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	21d	1	0.88mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	14d	1	0.91mi
4814 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,795	$1.10	14d	1	0.91mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	14d	1	0.94mi
5604 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,400	$0.97	21d	1	0.98mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	14d	1	0.99mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	44d	1	0.99mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.99mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	1.00mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-21
   status Active
4. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2025-03-25
   soldstatus $770,000
7. 2024-05-23
   price $140,000
8. 2013-07-24
   soldstatus
9. 2006-06-06
   soldstatus
10. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,311
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$757
• After-tax cash flow: $3,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-39.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $770,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2013-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,311 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.