10486 Sugar Mill Dr · Conroe, TX 77306

$166,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. An inviting open-concept floorplan encourages simple transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three bedrooms are located near the front of the home, just steps from a full bathroom, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 157 days

🏗️ New construction. The $166,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $230,933.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 813 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $82k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $146,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,933
• List price: $166,990
• Delta: -27.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10779 Red Flagstone Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-3%)	1mo	$219,900	$131	80
10743 Red Flagstone Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+3%)	7mo	$229,900	$129	76
10719 Red Flagstone Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+3%)	6mo	$246,900	$138	75
10767 Red Flagstone Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,789 (+3%)	14mo	$227,900	$127	74
10714 Red Flagstone Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+9%)	0mo	$224,900	$120	71
10607 Crockett Meadows Blvd	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+9%)	1mo	$249,900	$133	70
10470 Sugar Mill Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-15%)	1mo	$187,990	$128	69
10774 Red Flagstone Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,882 (+9%)	10mo	$241,900	$129	69
10771 Red Flagstone Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+10%)	9mo	$244,900	$129	67
10783 Red Flagstone Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	4mo	$243,900	$162	64
10611 Crockett Meadows Blvd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	0mo	$199,900	$133	60
10707 Red Flagstone Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	7mo	$234,900	$156	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-48,950
• Equity at exit: $34,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-57,333
• Equity at exit: $19,967

Cash invested: $64,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 57.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $226,990 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,211
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$289 /mo · $3,464/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,066

Max offer price $204,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-102	+0% $-182	+5% $-262	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-254	+0% $-182	+5% $-109	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-123	base $-182	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,733
• Closing costs: $6,928
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10083 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1705	$1,591	$0.93	113d	1	0.88mi
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	165d	1	0.91mi
15609 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,616	$1.15	76d	1	1.00mi
15736 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,925	$1.06	0d	1	1.01mi
15601 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,736	$1.08	99d	1	1.01mi
15732 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	57d	1	1.01mi
15732 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	21d	1	1.01mi
15728 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,895	$1.18	57d	1	1.02mi
15728 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,895	$1.18	64d	1	1.02mi
15716 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	1.03mi
15716 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,895	$1.18	55d	1	1.03mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	140d	1	1.03mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	184d	1	1.03mi
16428 Jireh Rd Unit Single Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	7d	1	1.06mi
15684 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,599	$0.88	29d	1	1.06mi
15680 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,429	$0.89	22d	1	1.07mi
15653 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,470	$0.91	48d	1	1.12mi
15649 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,449	$1.21	49d	1	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Waterstone Development GroupAssociation amenities include park and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fencePond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $166,990 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $166,990 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $166,990 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $166,990 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $166,990 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $166,990 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $171,990 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $171,990 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $171,990 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    pricedays on market $171,990 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $181,990 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $184,990 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    pricedays on market $184,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $188,990 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $188,990 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $188,990 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $188,990 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-10-23
    price $188,990 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $185,990 Active 141 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    pricedays on market $185,990 Active 140 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $188,990 Active 139 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $188,990 Active 138 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $188,990 Active 137 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $188,990 Active 136 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $188,990 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $188,990 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $188,990 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    price $188,990 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    days on market $198,990 Active 132 DOM
30. 2026-10-13
    price $198,990 Active 131 DOM
31. 2026-10-12
    days on market $208,990 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-10-11
    days on market $208,990 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-10-10
    days on market $208,990 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-10-09
    days on market $208,990 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-10-08
    days on market $208,990 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-10-07
    days on market $208,990 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-10-06
    days on market $208,990 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-10-05
    days on market $208,990 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $208,990 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-10-03
    days on market $208,990 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-10-02
    days on market $208,990 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-10-01
    days on market $208,990 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-09-30
    days on market $208,990 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-09-29
    days on market $208,990 Active 118 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $208,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-09-26
    days on market $208,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-09-25
    days on market $208,990 Active 114 DOM
48. 2026-09-24
    days on market $208,990 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $208,990 Active 112 DOM
50. 2026-09-22
    days on market $213,990 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,936
• − Property taxes: −$3,464
• − Insurance: −$1,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,718
• Taxable loss: −$6,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $-693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Waterstone Development GroupAssociation amenities include park and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fencePond on lotSubdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $218,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $228,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-15 Listed $248,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $248,990 HARMLS