109 Willowridge Ln · Willard, MO 65781

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2001 0.26 ac lot Est $211k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER. WILL SHOW PENDING AFTER APPROVAL FROM ATTORNEY. Looking for a project with a massive upside? This home is ready for its next chapter. Home has a great layout with a functional flow. Located on a cul-de-sac in a lovely neighborhood in highly desired Willard School District. This is a rare opportunity to get into the market at a price point that allows for a full custom renovation. Schedule your showing today! To be sold 'As-Is' Seller to do no repairs. Please be cautious when entering home.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard East Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 326 students, 32% FRL); Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.28%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,756
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Willowridge Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$137	100
105 Sedona Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,103 (+1%)	8mo	$225,000	$204	88
121 Holly Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+4%)	1mo	$229,900	$203	82
108 W Fall Creek Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,211 (+11%)	5mo	$229,000	$189	71
103 Arrowhead Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-1%)	1mo	$215,000	$198	71
102 Arrowhead Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$198	71
217 Arrowhead Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	10mo	$229,500	$191	70
204 Arrowhead Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,227 (+12%)	10mo	$214,900	$175	62
204 Eagle Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+13%)	3mo	$249,900	$202	59
113 Holly Ridge Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+8%)	14mo	$215,000	$183	57
119 N Grand Prairie Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+12%)	11mo	$219,900	$180	48
100 Dorcas Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$185,000	$193	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,396
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,278
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65781

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $402	+0% $359	+5% $317	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $291	+0% $359	+5% $427	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $398	base $359	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2008-12-17
   soldstatus
4. 2008-12-17
   soldstatus
5. 2005-03-09
   soldstatus
6. 2002-07-09
   soldstatus
7. 2001-03-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willard

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willard, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,160

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.06%
• Current HPI: 214.9498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-08 Listed $149,900 SOMO
• 2008-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · +32.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.