3437 Oak Tree Ln · Pace, FL 32571

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Home in a Great Location! Top Rated Schools in Pace Florida. Just off Woodbine Rd on Oak Tree Lane. 2005 Single Wide, 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath, Mobil Home. Open Floor Plan so it Feels Much Larger than 924 sq ft. 2016 Renovated interior with New Sheetrock, Insulated Walls and Flooring. New Metal Roof in 2018. Septic Tank, Water Lines & Power Pole Replaced 2010.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Metal roof
• Septic tank

Tags

• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• MATURE TREES
• REMODELED
• METAL ROOF
• SEPTIC TANK
• WATER LINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.31%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $12,337
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $53,343
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $999/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,073

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $584	+0% $545	+5% $507	+10% $469
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $476	+0% $545	+5% $615	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $580	base $545	+0.5pp $510	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4716 Chumuckla Hwy Unit 3903 Pace, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	24d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 672-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $999 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$999
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $5,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1250.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $135,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-13 Sold (MLS) $98,000 PARMLS
• 2022-01-05 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Listed $98,000 PARMLS
• 2010-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-16 Sold (MLS) $16,000 PARMLS
• 2009-12-21 Listed $16,500 PARMLS
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records
• 1984-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $999 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.