17104 Coulter Pine Ct · Conroe, TX 77302

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 7,588 sqft lot Garage $148/sqft · 19% below area Est $290k · 22% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this single story home in the Granger Pines community of Conroe. Completed in 2023, this 1,583-sq-ft residence features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 3-car garage, offering a spacious and functional layout. The open floor plan provides a comfortable living space, including a kitchen that flows into the family room, ideal for daily living and entertaining. With a traditional design and modern finishes, this home delivers both style and practicality. HUD case #512-534356.

Key facts

• Ev charging station
• Modern upgrades
• Private bath

Tags

• CORNER CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• EV CHARGING STATION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MODERN UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (15.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1310 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,865 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,882
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -22.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16796 Red Leaf Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-2%)	1mo	$195,000	$131	68
14210 Granger Pointe Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,557 (+2%)	1mo	$253,990	$163	64
14186 Granger Pointe Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,557 (+2%)	1mo	$249,040	$160	63
14191 Granger Pointe Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$233,940	$162	52
14183 Granger Pointe Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$219,940	$153	52
14206 Granger Pointe Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-6%)	2mo	$202,940	$142	52
14174 Granger Pointe Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	2mo	$228,940	$159	51
14313 Grey Pointe	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-6%)	1mo	$210,590	$148	49
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-6%)	2mo	$227,940	$160	48
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-6%)	2mo	$214,590	$150	48
14178 Granger Pointe Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-8%)	1mo	$238,540	$170	47
14171 Granger Pointe Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-8%)	2mo	$239,540	$170	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-47,460
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,814
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 61 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,900 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1310
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,559/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,912

Max offer price $190,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-130	+0% $-193	+5% $-257	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-299	+0% $-193	+5% $-88	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-136	base $-193	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,330	$1.39	0d	9	0.27mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	93d	1	1.02mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by C.I.A Services, Inc.Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 parking spacesElectric vehicle charging station(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (entry level information not specified)Built in 2023
• Construction: Vinyl sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (14 x 10 and 11 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on marketlisting id $225,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-07-13
   days on market $225,000 Pending 45 DOM
8. 2026-07-13
   days on market $225,000 Pending 44 DOM
9. 2026-07-11
   days on market $225,000 Pending 43 DOM
10. 2026-07-10
    days on market $225,000 Pending 42 DOM
11. 2026-07-09
    days on market $225,000 Pending 41 DOM
12. 2026-07-07
    statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 39 DOM
13. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-07-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-07-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-07-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-06-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
20. 2026-06-29
    days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
22. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
23. 2026-06-26
    days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
24. 2026-06-24
    days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
25. 2026-06-22
    days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
26. 2026-06-21
    days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
27. 2026-06-18
    price $225,000 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-06-18
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
29. 2026-06-17
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
30. 2026-06-16
    days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
31. 2026-06-15
    days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
34. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
35. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
36. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
37. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
38. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
39. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
40. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,559 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,559 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$6,559
• − Insurance: −$6,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in the Granger Pines community is in excellent condition with new finishes and modern updates throughout. It's an ideal investment property with a great location and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves the look and feel of the bathrooms, enhancing resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the overall look and feel of the home, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Milam El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Moorhead J H F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Caney Creek H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by C.I.A Services, Inc.Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 parking spacesElectric vehicle charging station(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (entry level information not specified)Built in 2023
• Construction: Vinyl sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (14 x 10 and 11 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-08-02 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-07-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-07-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-07-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $234,600 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $271,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+95.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,559 · +425.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.