535 Madison Ave NW · Roanoke, VA 24016

$162,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1919 4,791 sqft lot Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TAKE A LOOK AT THIS NICE 2 STORY HOME, 4 BED, 1 BATH. NEWLY REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS. FRESH PAINT, NEW TOILET. FEATURES A COVERED FRONT PORCH, TILT IN WINDOWS, PANTRY IN KITCHEN, AND LAUNDRY ON ENTRY LEVEL. ONE FOOT OF INSULATION IN ATTIC AND INSULATED DUCT WORK IN BASEMENT - LIVING ROOM COULD BE CONVERTED TO FIRST LEVEL BEDROOM - CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN, RESTAURANTS, AND SHOPPING.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tilt in windows
• Pantry in kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TILT IN WINDOWS
• PANTRY IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ON ENTRY LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Roanoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#163 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, crime F.
• Roanoke City Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #102 of 131 in VA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Terrace Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 297 students, 103% FRL); Patrick Henry High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 2,005 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 113 units permitted in Roanoke city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $163k implies a 714% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,396 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,358
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 Madison Ave NW	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,058 (+7%)	1mo	$166,000	$81	82
509 Patton Ave NW	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,950 (+2%)	5mo	$185,000	$95	76
809 Madison Ave NW	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,107 (+10%)	6mo	$155,000	$74	61
304 Fairfax Ave NW	0.26mi	3/1.5	2,150 (+12%)	11mo	$75,000	$35	56
1302 Hanover Ave NW	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,957 (+2%)	5mo	$94,000	$48	54
1015 Rugby Blvd NW	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,053 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$119	54
806 Fairfax Ave NW	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (-12%)	10mo	$210,000	$124	50
1229 Loudon Ave NW	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (-7%)	2mo	$180,000	$101	48
1011 Fairfax Ave NW	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,116 (+10%)	9mo	$152,500	$72	48
1230 Orange Ave NW	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-10%)	2mo	$110,000	$63	46
946 Kellogg Ave NW	0.61mi	3/1.0	2,122 (+11%)	11mo	$149,900	$71	45
1131 Grayson Ave NW	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,138 (+12%)	7mo	$242,500	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,792
• Equity at exit: $24,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,959
• Equity at exit: $14,089

Cash invested: $45,626 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24016

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,602/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $162,950

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,738
• Closing costs: $4,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Patton Ave NW Unit 2 Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1240	$1,025	$0.83	21d	1	0.34mi
821 12th St NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,625	$1.08	44d	1	0.53mi
701 Salem Ave SW Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,950	$1.56	44d	1	0.65mi
430 Day Ave SW Unit A Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1444	$1,650	$1.14	44d	1	0.91mi
1533 Rugby Blvd NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	44d	1	0.98mi
602 Elm Ave Unit B Roanoke, VA	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,250	$0.69	44d	1	1.00mi
1531 Syracuse Ave NW Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	44d	1	1.01mi
1017 Ferdinand Ave SW Roanoke, VA	4.0	2.5	2248	$1,795	$0.80	44d	1	1.01mi
2109 Colgate St NE Roanoke, VA	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	1.21mi
1609 Chapman Ave SW Unit B Roanoke, VA	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   price $162,950
3. 2025-10-20
   listed $164,950 Active
4. 2025-08-07
   status Active
5. 2025-07-19
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-19
   historical
7. 2025-04-17
   listed $164,950 Active
8. 2025-04-07
   historical
9. 2024-10-07
   listed $164,950 Active
10. 2024-10-04
    historical
11. 2024-04-06
    listed $164,950 Active
12. 2012-12-28
    soldstatus $20,010
13. 2012-10-15
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,128
• − Property taxes: −$1,602
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,740
• Taxable loss: −$1,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103300
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #3639
• State rank: #102 of 131 in VA

Livability — Roanoke

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #5055

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roanoke, VA
• County: Roanoke City · 101,625 people
• City population: 168,930
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 10,521
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 78.7% rent · 21.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,094 people
• By 2030: 108,927 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 114,104 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 118,032 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 123,363 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 116,827 · +10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.6) · D 61.1% · R 37.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 23.4pp · 2024: 23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.6 2020: D+25.8 2016: D+17.6 2012: D+21.5 2008: D+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.06%
• Current HPI: 257.8158
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+551.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $162,950 MLSRV
• 2025-10-20 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2025-08-07 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2025-07-19 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-07-19 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2025-04-17 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2024-10-07 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2024-04-06 Listed $164,950 MLSRV
• 2012-12-28 Sold (MLS) $20,010 MLSRV
• 2012-10-15 Listed $25,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,602 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.