5403 Lemon Rd NE · Olympia, WA 98506

$595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2006 0.36 ac lot $257/sqft · 26% below area Est $806k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained Contemporary Ranch with Modern Craftsman influences, offering 2,314 sq ft of bright and airy living space on a . 36-acre lot with no HOA. Built in 2006, this 3 bed, 2 bath home blends timeless style with everyday comfort. Large windows and sliding glass doors allow natural light to pour throughout the home, highlighting the real hardwood floors, elegant crown molding, tray ceilings, and premium carpeting. The thoughtfully arranged kitchen features granite countertops, stainless appliances, abundant cabinetry, and a raised breakfast bar that’s perfect for entertaining. Retreat to the oversized primary suite featuring serene backyard views and a lu

Key facts

• Raised breakfast bar
• Soaking tub
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• NO HOA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• RAISED BREAKFAST BAR
• LUXURIOUS EN-SUITE BATH
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $447k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($559k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $595k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $333,265 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $805,822
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: -26.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5549 Meadowood Ln NE	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,454 (+6%)	14mo	$910,000	$371	48
4924 Lemon Rd NE	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,988 (-14%)	14mo	$700,000	$352	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-147,852
• Equity at exit: $88,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-189,539
• Equity at exit: $51,445

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98506

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,222/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,392

Max offer price $447,111

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-669	+0% $-837	+5% $-1,685	+10% $-1,890
Rent	-10% $-1,100	-5% $-969	+0% $-837	+5% $-706	+10% $-574
Rate	-1.0pp $-538	-0.5pp $-686	base $-837	+0.5pp $-991	+1.0pp $-1,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4937 Sleater Kinney Rd NE Olympia, WA	4.0	4.0	2900	$3,995	$1.38	14d	1	1.02mi
4937 Sleater Kinney Rd NE Olympia, WA	4.0	4.0	2900	$3,995	$1.38	44d	1	1.02mi
5110 Boston Harbor Rd NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1828	$3,395	$1.86	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   price $595,000
3. 2026-04-17
   price $600,000
4. 2026-04-02
   price $619,000
5. 2026-03-09
   price $624,000
6. 2026-02-12
   listed $629,000 Active
7. 2016-11-23
   soldstatus $295,000 Sold
8. 2016-11-16
   soldstatus $295,000
9. 2016-10-24
   status Pending
10. 2016-10-14
    status Pending Inspection
11. 2016-10-04
    listed $299,900 Active
12. 2015-02-11
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold
13. 2015-01-02
    status Pending Inspection
14. 2014-12-03
    price $259,500
15. 2014-10-29
    listed $272,900 Active
16. 2009-06-04
    soldstatus $315,000 Sold
17. 2009-06-04
    soldstatus $315,000
18. 2009-04-29
    historical
19. 2009-04-24
    status
20. 2009-04-23
    historical
21. 2009-01-31
    status
22. 2009-01-30
    historical
23. 2009-01-07
    price $325,000
24. 2009-01-06
    price $299,900
25. 2008-12-22
    listed $335,000
26. 2006-10-19
    soldstatus $119,310

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,831 · $486/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,609/yr (+$384/mo · 377.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$1,222
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,199
• − Management: −$3,199
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$21,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,497
• Household income: $91,596
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -437.08%
• Current HPI: 363.2295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+398.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $595,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $600,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $619,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $624,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $629,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-23 Sold (MLS) $295,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-04 Listed $299,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-11 Sold (MLS) $240,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-03 Price Changed $259,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-29 Listed $272,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-04 Sold (MLS) $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-23 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-31 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-30 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-07 Price Changed $325,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-06 Price Changed $299,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-22 Listed $335,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $119,310 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,222 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.