440 Caribrook Way #1 · Stockton, CA 95207

$139,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 795 sqft · Condo public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1972 $176/sqft · at area comps Est $137k · at est. $295/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lower-level unit condo. Features 2bd 1 bath, laminate flooring and central heat and air. Currently tenant occupied on month-to-month lease at $1550.00 per month.

Key facts

• $295 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,900
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: 2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,821
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,651
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95207

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,296/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$295
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4433 Continental Way Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$2,662	$3.38	2d	23	0.13mi
4475 La Cresta Way #2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	43d	1	0.14mi
126 E Jamestown St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	43d	1	0.39mi
126 E Jamestown St Apt 221 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	23d	1	0.48mi
126 E Jamestown St Unit 230 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	0.48mi
4770 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	657	$1,795	$2.73	43d	1	0.49mi
4770 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	657	$1,795	$2.73	21d	1	0.49mi
4770 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	657	$1,795	$2.73	14d	1	0.49mi
4770 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	657	$1,795	$2.73	10d	1	0.49mi
150 Gateway Ct Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,375	$2.13	43d	1	0.49mi
3814 N California St Unit 6 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	10d	1	0.51mi
3814 N California St Unit 3 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	3d	1	0.52mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-07 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,695	$1.80	18d	1	0.63mi
705 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	2d	1	0.63mi
705 Camanche Ln Unit CAM-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	18d	1	0.63mi
613 Camanche Ln Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,695	$2.08	2d	3	0.63mi
5324 Holiday Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	2d	3	0.65mi
110 E Grove St Apt 19 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	595	$1,050	$1.76	43d	1	0.76mi
328 Northbank Ct #41 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	885	$1,600	$1.81	18d	1	0.80mi
4332 Pacific Ave Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	645	$1,545	$2.39	2d	3	0.94mi
4332 Pacific Ave #37 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	596	$1,500	$2.52	23d	1	0.94mi
4332 Pacific Ave #11 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	695	$1,545	$2.22	23d	1	0.94mi
440 E Arcade St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	962	$2,350	$2.44	43d	1	1.05mi
2704 N Hunter St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,795	$2.18	23d	1	1.14mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-05 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	2d	1	1.14mi
764 E Swain Rd Unit SW-12 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,655	$1.81	18d	1	1.14mi
764 E Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,675	$1.83	10d	1	1.14mi
3301 Pacific Ave Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	685	$1,375	$2.01	23d	1	1.16mi
220 E Ellis St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	43d	1	1.20mi
650 Dave Brubeck Way Unit 4B Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$850	$1.42	14d	1	1.20mi
650 Dave Brubeck Way Unit 5A Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,650	$2.75	43d	1	1.20mi
6032 Cresenda Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$2,500	$2.58	21d	1	1.31mi
4401 Manchester Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,474	$1.59	21d	1	1.34mi
4401 Manchester Ave Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,474	$1.59	43d	2	1.34mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	11d	1	1.38mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,270	$2.36	23d	1	1.38mi
6465 West Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	539	$1,320	$2.45	43d	1	1.38mi
32 E Wyandotte St Apt D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $295 · $3,540/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,999 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,999 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 153 DOM
15. 2024-01-11
    historical $1,395
16. 2023-11-28
    listed $1,395
17. 2020-11-04
    soldstatus $95,000
18. 2009-08-19
    soldstatus $22,000
19. 1999-07-27
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 1997-11-26
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,296
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − HOA: −$3,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $55
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,414
• Household income: $69,455
• Rent vs Own: 58.4% rent · 41.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3292.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 24% White 23% Black 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.91%
• Current HPI: 358.6024
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-82.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-11 Rental Removed $1,395 RENTEC
• 2023-11-28 Listed for Rent $1,395 RENTEC
• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,296 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.