959 N Erie Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1925 10,547 sqft lot Est $215k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 959 Erie Ave. This diamond in the rough is ready for a little imagination and some TLC. This would be a great owner occupy or investment opportunity. With a great backyard and detached garage, this home has plenty of potential. Showings begin Saturday 4/27/24 and offers, if any, are due Monday May 6th at 12:00pm.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Beautiful backyard
• Conveniently located

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Composite siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Some rooms noted as 'Other'; See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.68%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,424
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
959 Erie Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	24mo	$90,000	$110	80
953 Erie Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	906 (+11%)	12mo	$195,000	$215	66
1330 Sisson Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0	768 (-6%)	14mo	$205,000	$267	53
979 Nash Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	808 (-1%)	19mo	$220,000	$272	47
922 Nash Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	776 (-5%)	22mo	$205,000	$264	39
821 Revere Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	936 (+15%)	17mo	$183,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,022
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $26,575
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,641/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 E Robinson St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	2d	1	0.71mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	0.76mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	24d	1	1.02mi
317 Hedwig Dr Unit N North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	10d	1	1.07mi
1400 Nash Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,225	$1.63	2d	1	1.25mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.32mi
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.36mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    listed $139,000 Active
15. 2025-08-13
    historical
16. 2025-07-03
    listed $139,900 Active
17. 2024-07-01
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Welcome to 959 Erie Ave. This diamond in the rough is ready for a little imagination and some TLC. This would be a great owner occupy or investment opportunity. With a great backyard and detached garage, this home has plenty of potential. Showings begin Saturday 4/27/24 and offers, if any, are due Monday May 6th at 12:00pm.

18. 2024-05-08
    status Pending 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Welcome to 959 Erie Ave. This diamond in the rough is ready for a little imagination and some TLC. This would be a great owner occupy or investment opportunity. With a great backyard and detached garage, this home has plenty of potential. Showings begin Saturday 4/27/24 and offers, if any, are due Monday May 6th at 12:00pm.

19. 2024-04-25
    listed $80,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Welcome to 959 Erie Ave. This diamond in the rough is ready for a little imagination and some TLC. This would be a great owner occupy or investment opportunity. With a great backyard and detached garage, this home has plenty of potential. Showings begin Saturday 4/27/24 and offers, if any, are due Monday May 6th at 12:00pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,641
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$21
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+73.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $139,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (MLS) $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $80,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,641 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.