935 Murcia St · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1948 0.26 ac lot $55/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

935 Murcia Dr, St. Louis, MO 63138 Welcome to this charming 1½-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, full of character and potential. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless appeal throughout the home. The property features a full basement, providing plenty of space for storage, a workshop, or future finishing possibilities. Situated on a corner lot, the home offers extra yard space and great curb appeal. Enjoy a convenient location within walking distance to the local elementary school and nearby parks, making it easy to enjoy the outdoors and community amenities. You’ll also be just minutes from the Saint Louis Zoo expansion area and the scenic recreation around Spanish Lake.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 108 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Larimore Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Southeast Middle (math 5% / reading 18%, grade F, #371 of 391 statewide, top 95%, 469 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,859 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.61%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,405
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -61.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1121 Trampe Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	843 (+4%)	8mo	$103,900	$123	69
1209 Northdale Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	864 (+7%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	67
1130 Lakeview Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	864 (+7%)	5mo	$42,500	$49	63
1216 Redman Blvd	0.62mi	2/1.0	792 (-2%)	6mo	$110,000	$139	62
1136 Cove Ln	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	4mo	$102,500	$119	52
1141 Walker Ave	0.69mi	2/1.5	864 (+7%)	3mo	$105,000	$122	52
1231 Reale Ave	0.72mi	2/1.5	864 (+7%)	2mo	$69,900	$81	51
1125 Walker Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	3mo	$114,999	$133	50
11891 Bridgevale Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	5mo	$128,000	$148	49
1136 Walker Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	3mo	$125,000	$145	48
1223 Reale Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	4mo	$120,000	$139	47
12355 Pinta Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+14%)	6mo	$81,900	$89	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $30,841
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $66,506
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $669	+0% $656	+5% $643	+10% $631
Rent	-10% $556	-5% $606	+0% $656	+5% $706	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $667	base $656	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	0.30mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	45d	1	0.56mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	45d	1	0.61mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	0d	1	0.62mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	25d	1	0.62mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.73mi
1072 Prigge Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	0d	1	0.74mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	3d	1	0.74mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	25d	1	0.78mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	14d	1	0.80mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	23d	1	0.80mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	0.84mi
1585 Leonaire Ct Unit 1585-87 Leonaire St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	45d	1	0.95mi
1574 Leonaire Ct Unit 1510 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	45d	1	0.96mi
12401 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12415 A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	45d	1	1.06mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	25d	1	1.08mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,100	$1.04	0d	9	1.17mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $44,900 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    935 Murcia Dr, St. Louis, MO 63138 Welcome to this charming 1½-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, full of character and potential. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless appeal throughout the home. The property features a full basement, providing plenty of space for storage, a workshop, or future finishing possibilities. Situated on a corner lot, the home offers extra yard space and great curb appeal. Enjoy a convenient location within walking distance to the local elementary school and nearby parks, making it easy to enjoy the outdoors and community amenities. You’ll also be just minutes from the Saint Louis Zoo expansion area and the scenic recreation around Spanish Lake.

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $46,900 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    935 Murcia Dr, St. Louis, MO 63138 Welcome to this charming 1½-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, full of character and potential. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless appeal throughout the home. The property features a full basement, providing plenty of space for storage, a workshop, or future finishing possibilities. Situated on a corner lot, the home offers extra yard space and great curb appeal. Enjoy a convenient location within walking distance to the local elementary school and nearby parks, making it easy to enjoy the outdoors and community amenities. You’ll also be just minutes from the Saint Louis Zoo expansion area and the scenic recreation around Spanish Lake.

18. 2026-03-05
    historical $46,900 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    935 Murcia Dr, St. Louis, MO 63138 Welcome to this charming 1½-story home offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, full of character and potential. Inside, you’ll find beautiful hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless appeal throughout the home. The property features a full basement, providing plenty of space for storage, a workshop, or future finishing possibilities. Situated on a corner lot, the home offers extra yard space and great curb appeal. Enjoy a convenient location within walking distance to the local elementary school and nearby parks, making it easy to enjoy the outdoors and community amenities. You’ll also be just minutes from the Saint Louis Zoo expansion area and the scenic recreation around Spanish Lake.

19. 2002-06-07
    soldstatus $54,900
20. 1985-09-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $6,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $44,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $46,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Coming Soon $46,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 1985-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,051 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.