1397 Lincoln Ave · St. Paul, MN 55105

$650,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,104 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1921 7,187 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great layout for owner occupied plus

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1921

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two total units; Gross income reported at $20,106; Owner pays gas, trash collection, and water; Tenants pay cable TV and electricity

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage (approximately 19 x 18.5)
• Utilities: City water (in street); City sewer (in street); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential income duplex (side-by-side); Two levels; Owner occupied
• Construction: Foundation area approximately 1,552 (foundation included); Roof replaced or updated within the last 8 years; Partial concrete basement
• Exterior features: Stone and stucco exterior; Lot approximately 0.165 acres (48 x 150)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave (Unit 2); Stainless steel appliances (Unit 1)
• Bedrooms: Seven bedrooms total (one unit with five bedrooms; one unit with two bedrooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Total of five bathrooms across both units (Unit 1: 3 bathrooms — 1 full, 1 three-quarter, 1 half; Unit 2: 2 bathrooms — 1 full, 1 one-quarter)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Natural woodwork; Sun room; Kitchen window; One wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in both units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $617k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $617k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,168/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 909% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; list at $650k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $616,800 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-92,470
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-60,734
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55105

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$1,009 /mo · $12,112/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,295
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,935

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $368	+0% $184	+5% $0	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-60	+0% $184	+5% $428	+10% $671
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $349	base $184	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-156

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$3,084
1× unit	3	2	$3,084
Total (2 units)			$6,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $650,000 Active
4. 2026-04-20
   historical $650,000
5. 2012-03-15
   soldstatus $379,900
6. 2012-03-02
   soldstatus $379,900 36-char remark

   Show marketing remark (36 chars)

   Great layout for owner occupied plus

7. 2012-02-06
   historical 36-char remark

   Show marketing remark (36 chars)

   Great layout for owner occupied plus

8. 2012-01-30
   listed $374,900 36-char remark

   Show marketing remark (36 chars)

   Great layout for owner occupied plus

9. 1999-03-03
   soldstatus $300,000
10. 1998-12-15
    soldstatus $300,000
11. 1998-12-15
    soldstatus $300,000
12. 1998-11-06
    historical
13. 1998-11-06
    historical
14. 1998-09-18
    listed $309,900
15. 1998-09-04
    listed $309,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,112 · $1,009/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,112 · $1,009/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$12,112
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,921
• − Management: −$5,921
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$8,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $4,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,617
• Household income: $107,248
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 909.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -562.23%
• Current HPI: 223.6008
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+109.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $650,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $650,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $379,900 Public Records
• 2012-03-02 Sold (MLS) $379,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Listed $374,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-15 Sold (MLS) $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-15 Sold (MLS) $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-18 Listed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-04 Listed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,112 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.