404 Vine Cliff St · Ruskin, FL 33570

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2006 5,502 sqft lot $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh My Goodness!!! This home is eligible for 0% down financing!!! Located in the sought after south shore area, just minutes to all major highways, shopping, restaurants and beaches. All new laminate flooring throughout, brand new tile in bathrooms and kitchen and 2 inch window blinds. The floor plan is a 3 way split, with the 4th bedroom that can be used as an office or den. Two car garage with opener, all kitchen appliances remain. Located in a community with very low HOA and no CDD. Hurry… this won’t last long!!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Updated home
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• UPDATED HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTER ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot about 0.13 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Arkham Services LLC; HOA fees required — $736 annually (about $61.33/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 1,950 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-889/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 489 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,976 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,465
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,184
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,381/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,584

Max offer price $286,917

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $11	+0% $-74	+5% $-159	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-172	+0% $-74	+5% $24	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $2	base $-74	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
903 Zone Tailed Hawk Pl Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,200	$1.14	25d	1	0.22mi
1609 Carson White Ln Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1808	$2,215	$1.23	2d	1	0.27mi
811 15th St NE Ruskin, FL	3.0	3.0	1870	$2,076	$1.11	14d	1	0.31mi
1762 Broad Winged Hawk Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1899	$2,400	$1.26	18d	1	0.34mi
1409 Delano Trent St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,800	$1.45	5d	1	0.34mi
2025 Broad Winged Hawk Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,365	$1.21	13d	1	0.37mi
1606 Delano Trent St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2102	$2,100	$1.00	25d	1	0.40mi
1438 Delano Trent St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2275	$2,119	$0.93	22d	1	0.44mi
939 Kelly Fern Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2406	$2,595	$1.08	2d	1	0.45mi
966 Kelly Fern Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,195	$1.55	0d	1	0.50mi
2340 Harris Hawk Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,049	$1.44	25d	1	0.52mi
1044 Kelly Fern Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2289	$2,900	$1.27	25d	1	0.63mi
1310 Trailwater St Ruskin, FL	5.0	4.0	2205	$2,500	$1.13	12d	1	0.65mi
1113 Brenton Leaf Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,985	$1.44	21d	1	0.68mi
1309 Alhambra Crest Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	2010	$2,315	$1.15	2d	1	0.69mi
1941 Hawks View Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2098	$2,690	$1.28	0d	1	0.70mi
1029 Spotted Egret Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	5d	1	0.74mi
2458 Dovesong Trace Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	11d	1	0.84mi
1827 Harbour Blue St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	25d	1	0.87mi
2011 Sea Salt Ct Ruskin, FL	5.0	2.5	2415	$2,600	$1.08	25d	1	0.88mi
424 Newmont Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	3.0	1707	$1,950	$1.14	25d	1	0.88mi
2025 Peaceful Palm St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	0.93mi
1740 Chatham Green Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	3d	1	0.94mi
724 Royal Empress Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1796	$2,195	$1.22	3d	1	0.94mi
1119 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,325	$1.14	2d	1	0.98mi
1118 Wynnmere Walk Ave Ruskin, FL	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,200	$1.25	25d	1	0.98mi
1105 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,399	$1.16	25d	1	1.02mi
837 Chatham Walk Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,350	$1.67	25d	1	1.04mi
5025 White Chicory Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$3,000	$1.55	25d	1	1.13mi
3119 Sleepy River Ave Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,233	$1.57	0d	10	1.15mi
5001 White Chicory Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,201	$1.14	0d	1	1.17mi
234 Star Shell Dr Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,996	$1.06	22d	1	1.17mi
320 Blue Point Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,145	$1.21	3d	1	1.21mi
720 Chatham Walk Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,985	$1.41	5d	1	1.27mi
1251 9th St SE Ruskin, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1650	$3,500	$2.12	5d	1	1.29mi
1501 21st St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1618	$2,155	$1.33	4d	1	1.29mi
2304 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,970	$1.54	4d	1	1.34mi
3402 Salt Air Dr Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,353	$2.22	0d	43	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   price $300,000
3. 2026-04-08
   price $309,900
4. 2026-03-20
   price $315,000
5. 2026-02-26
   listed $320,000 Active
6. 2026-01-27
   soldstatus $320,000
7. 2017-04-12
   soldstatus $172,500
8. 2017-04-07
   soldstatus $172,500 Sold 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Oh My Goodness!!! This home is eligible for 0% down financing!!! Located in the sought after south shore area, just minutes to all major highways, shopping, restaurants and beaches. All new laminate flooring throughout, brand new tile in bathrooms and kitchen and 2 inch window blinds. The floor plan is a 3 way split, with the 4th bedroom that can be used as an office or den. Two car garage with opener, all kitchen appliances remain. Located in a community with very low HOA and no CDD. Hurry… this won’t last long!!

9. 2017-02-24
   status Pending 532-char remark

   Show marketing remark (532 chars)

   Oh My Goodness!!! This home is eligible for 0% down financing!!! Located in the sought after south shore area, just minutes to all major highways, shopping, restaurants and beaches. All new laminate flooring throughout, brand new tile in bathrooms and kitchen and 2 inch window blinds. The floor plan is a 3 way split, with the 4th bedroom that can be used as an office or den. Two car garage with opener, all kitchen appliances remain. Located in a community with very low HOA and no CDD. Hurry… this won’t last long!!

10. 2017-01-03
    price $172,500 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Oh My Goodness!!! This home is eligible for 0% down financing!!! Located in the sought after south shore area, just minutes to all major highways, shopping, restaurants and beaches. All new laminate flooring throughout, brand new tile in bathrooms and kitchen and 2 inch window blinds. The floor plan is a 3 way split, with the 4th bedroom that can be used as an office or den. Two car garage with opener, all kitchen appliances remain. Located in a community with very low HOA and no CDD. Hurry… this won’t last long!!

11. 2016-10-28
    listed $180,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Oh My Goodness!!! This home is eligible for 0% down financing!!! Located in the sought after south shore area, just minutes to all major highways, shopping, restaurants and beaches. All new laminate flooring throughout, brand new tile in bathrooms and kitchen and 2 inch window blinds. The floor plan is a 3 way split, with the 4th bedroom that can be used as an office or den. Two car garage with opener, all kitchen appliances remain. Located in a community with very low HOA and no CDD. Hurry… this won’t last long!!

12. 2016-10-24
    historical
13. 2016-10-07
    price $174,990
14. 2016-09-23
    price $179,989
15. 2016-09-14
    status Active
16. 2016-07-05
    historical Contingent - Financing
17. 2016-06-27
    status Pending
18. 2016-05-11
    historical Contingent - Financing
19. 2016-02-23
    listed $179,990 Active
20. 2006-03-16
    soldstatus $1,132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,381 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,381
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-73.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $172,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $172,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-03 Price Changed $172,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-28 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-07 Price Changed $174,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed $179,989 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-05 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-11 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-23 Listed $179,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,381 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.