974 Carmel Ct · Shoreview, MN 55126

$259,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,172 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Gorgeous views out back. Great location; situated at end of development with quick access to Hwys. Short sale. Minor TLC needed for a great home.

Key facts

• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $260k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $256,317 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,620
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $12,555
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55126

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,110/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $368	+0% $295	+5% $221	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $193	+0% $295	+5% $396	+10% $497
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $361	base $295	+0.5pp $227	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 Highway 96 W Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,380	$2.75	0d	1	1.22mi
4106 Sylvia Ln S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,400	$1.82	44d	1	1.24mi
4066 Lexington Ave N Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,950	$3.62	0d	21	1.38mi
1005 Gramsie Rd Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1092	$3,064	$2.80	0d	8	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $259,900 Active
2. 2013-02-27
   soldstatus $95,000
3. 2013-01-18
   soldstatus $95,000 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Gorgeous views out back. Great location; situated at end of development with quick access to Hwys. Short sale. Minor TLC needed for a great home.

4. 2012-12-28
   historical 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Gorgeous views out back. Great location; situated at end of development with quick access to Hwys. Short sale. Minor TLC needed for a great home.

5. 2012-02-23
   listed $95,000 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Gorgeous views out back. Great location; situated at end of development with quick access to Hwys. Short sale. Minor TLC needed for a great home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,110
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,461
• − Management: −$2,461
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $3,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shoreview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shoreview, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 27,456
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,456
• Household income: $108,217
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.72%
• Current HPI: 245.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+173.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $259,900 FSBO.com
• 2013-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-18 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-23 Listed $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,110 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.