7405 Carothers St · Houston, TX 77028

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1955 10,123 sqft lot $80/sqft · 40% below area Est $218k · 40% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and updated interior finishes. The home offers a bright living room, dedicated dining area, well-sized kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite includes a private bath, while both bathrooms feature updated finishes. A detached ADU in the back adds valuable flexibility ideal for guests, extended family, rental income, or a private workspace. Exterior features include a large front yard, private driveway, mature trees, and plenty of usable space both inside and out. Great layout with solid curb appeal and added versatility.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,813/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,886
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -40.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7413 W Knoll St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,616 (0%)	5mo	$229,500	$142	93
7309 Orville St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,490 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$134	74
7546 Delavan Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,505 (-7%)	4mo	$289,999	$193	71
7832 Dewitt St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-1%)	1mo	$264,900	$166	67
7101 Weyburn St Unit C	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,413 (-13%)	1mo	$199,990	$142	59
6845 Larkstone St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,567 (-3%)	10mo	$167,000	$107	56
7539 Carothers St	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-13%)	11mo	$135,000	$96	49
7127 S Hall St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (-12%)	14mo	$199,000	$139	49
7441 Fawnridge Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+11%)	7mo	$145,000	$81	49
9108 Elbert St	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,523 (-6%)	8mo	$80,000	$53	46
8203 Westcott St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,380 (-15%)	8mo	$204,999	$149	40
8525 Spaulding St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+14%)	10mo	$210,000	$114	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $58,168
• Equity at exit: $75,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $138,658
• Equity at exit: $132,029

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,399/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.23mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	44d	1	0.42mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	0.48mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	22d	1	0.59mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	0.87mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	0.90mi
9320 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,850	$0.97	7d	1	0.91mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	0.91mi
9328 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	0.91mi
9326 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	44d	1	0.91mi
7830 Nashville St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	8d	1	0.93mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	44d	1	0.95mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.96mi
8102 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	22d	1	0.98mi
8102 Crestview Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	0.98mi
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	8d	1	0.99mi
7945 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,699	$1.31	5d	1	1.09mi
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	5d	1	1.09mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.12mi
7966 Henson St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,410	$0.88	44d	1	1.14mi
8113 Denton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.14mi
7426 Miley St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$1,650	$0.79	24d	1	1.19mi
8216 Richland Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.22mi
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	44d	1	1.23mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	24d	1	1.24mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.24mi
8508 Wileyvale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	1.25mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	1.26mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	8d	1	1.26mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.35mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	1.37mi
8158 Sunbury St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,525	$1.17	24d	1	1.40mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	1.41mi
8135 Chateau St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1610	$1,645	$1.02	11d	1	1.42mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	22d	1	1.43mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $138,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $138,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $138,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $138,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   status Active 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and updated interior finishes. The home offers a bright living room, dedicated dining area, well-sized kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite includes a private bath, while both bathrooms feature updated finishes. A detached ADU in the back adds valuable flexibility ideal for guests, extended family, rental income, or a private workspace. Exterior features include a large front yard, private driveway, mature trees, and plenty of usable space both inside and out. Great layout with solid curb appeal and added versatility.

10. 2026-05-12
    price $144,900 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and updated interior finishes. The home offers a bright living room, dedicated dining area, well-sized kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite includes a private bath, while both bathrooms feature updated finishes. A detached ADU in the back adds valuable flexibility ideal for guests, extended family, rental income, or a private workspace. Exterior features include a large front yard, private driveway, mature trees, and plenty of usable space both inside and out. Great layout with solid curb appeal and added versatility.

11. 2026-05-08
    historical 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and updated interior finishes. The home offers a bright living room, dedicated dining area, well-sized kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite includes a private bath, while both bathrooms feature updated finishes. A detached ADU in the back adds valuable flexibility ideal for guests, extended family, rental income, or a private workspace. Exterior features include a large front yard, private driveway, mature trees, and plenty of usable space both inside and out. Great layout with solid curb appeal and added versatility.

12. 2026-04-09
    listed $155,990 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a functional layout with spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and updated interior finishes. The home offers a bright living room, dedicated dining area, well-sized kitchen, and comfortable bedrooms. The primary suite includes a private bath, while both bathrooms feature updated finishes. A detached ADU in the back adds valuable flexibility ideal for guests, extended family, rental income, or a private workspace. Exterior features include a large front yard, private driveway, mature trees, and plenty of usable space both inside and out. Great layout with solid curb appeal and added versatility.

13. 1999-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,399
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $4,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $155,990 HARMLS
• 1999-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,399 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.