5123 4th Ave · Andover, OH 44003

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 0.53 ac lot $123/sqft · 27% below area Est $225k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5123 4th Avenue in Andover, a home that combines comfort with flexibility. Just a short stroll from Pymatuning Lake and across from a forest preserve perfect for hiking and exploring, this ranch is equally suited for year-round living, a weekend retreat, a hunting and fishing base, an Airbnb investment, or a shared family getaway location. Inside, the floor plan is both practical and inviting. The large eat-in kitchen provides plenty of room for gathering, with appliances included and an adjoining laundry area that features a fish-cleaning sink. The living room has been updated with a vaulted ceiling, fresh flooring, and reinforced walls. A bonus room offers flexibility as a thir

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Two distinct parcels
• Fish-cleaning sink

Tags

• TWO DISTINCT PARCELS
• ACROSS FROM A FOREST PRESERVE
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ADJOINING LAUNDRY AREA
• FISH-CLEANING SINK
• DRAMATIC VAULTED CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include fishing, lake access, laundry facilities, medical services, and a park

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Garage with door opener (garage faces side); Detached parking available; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Block foundation
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Side porch; Wrap-around porch; Partial privacy fencing; Garage(s) and outbuilding; Corner lot with many trees and wooded areas; Flat, level front yard on an irregular lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; Space heater(s); Window cooling units
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Cedar closets; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#714 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Pymatuning Valley Local (rural): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #418 of 656 in OH (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pymatuning Valley Primary Elementary School (math 77% / reading 47%, grade B, #590 of 1,584 statewide, top 41%, 431 students, 0% FRL); Pymatuning Valley Middle School (math 53% / reading 54%, grade C+, #362 of 654 statewide, top 57%, 331 students, 63% FRL); Pymatuning Valley High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #582 of 781 statewide, top 76%, 351 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $111,093 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,323
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -26.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-38,130
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-47,971
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44003

• Home prices YoY: -8.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $133,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-132	+0% $-178	+5% $-225	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-222	+0% $-178	+5% $-134	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-136	base $-178	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on marketlisting id $165,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 256 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $165,000 1757-char remark
17. 2025-09-22
    listed $175,000 Active 1757-char remark
18. 2025-09-02
    historical
19. 2025-08-28
    status Active
20. 2025-08-27
    historical
21. 2025-05-20
    price $169,900
22. 2025-05-02
    price $174,900
23. 2025-03-23
    price $178,000
24. 2025-02-27
    listed $179,000 Active
25. 2024-10-17
    soldstatus $131,000 Closed
26. 2024-10-17
    soldstatus $32,750
27. 2024-09-19
    status Pending
28. 2024-08-26
    listed $147,900 Active
29. 2001-07-25
    soldstatus $42,000
30. 1992-10-27
    soldstatus $18,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$555/yr (+$46/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pymatuning Valley Local
• NCES district ID: 3904588
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,757
• Composite: 43.98/100
• National rank: #2896
• State rank: #418 of 656 in OH

Livability — Andover

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #714
• US rank: #12848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 4,379
• Household income: $53,690
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1.8

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · German/W. Germanic 16% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.89%
• Current HPI: 261.6884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+787.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-06-20 Listed $165,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $165,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-22 Listed $175,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-08-28 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $169,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $174,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $178,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-02-27 Listed $179,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,750 Public Records
• 2024-10-17 Sold (MLS) $131,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-09-19 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-08-26 Listed $147,900 MLSNOW
• 2001-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1992-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $18,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.