2817 Kirk Ave · Baltimore, MD 21218

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse · 64 Days on market

Built 1920 1,307 sqft lot Est $120k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market, buyer financing fell through, house appraied to listing price. This spacioius home is waiting for the vision of a future homeowner or the finishes of a savvy investor. House has spacious rooms and a bonus room on the main level. close to main roads and public transportation and also close to high school and parks.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 64 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: In city limits (Baltimore); Other lot features; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: Dining area; Traditional floor plan; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $85k implies a 2326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.15%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2770 The Alameda	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+4%)	3mo	$115,000	$92	81
1632 E 31st St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+7%)	0mo	$94,500	$74	78
2559 Garrett Ave	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,202 (+0%)	2mo	$205,000	$171	73
1809 E 32nd St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+7%)	1mo	$82,000	$64	71
1723 E 32nd St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	2mo	$128,000	$100	70
1120 Montpelier St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$70,000	$56	68
2545 Cecil Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,318 (+10%)	1mo	$215,000	$163	58
3626 Kimble Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+7%)	2mo	$310,000	$242	57
616 Montpelier St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-7%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	56
1652 Darley Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-8%)	0mo	$52,500	$48	55
616 E 30th St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-9%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	49
3633 Elkader Rd	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,304 (+9%)	1mo	$265,000	$203	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $38,302
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $93,943
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $493/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.10mi
3221 The Alameda Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	0.27mi
2606 Cecil Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.28mi
1802 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.29mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	44d	1	0.30mi
1832 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,495	$1.40	24d	1	0.33mi
936 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	24d	1	0.42mi
1040 E 33rd St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,525	$1.97	3d	10	0.51mi
1502 Fernley Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,800	$2.07	44d	1	0.56mi
2310 Aisquith St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	4d	1	0.59mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.60mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	18d	1	0.60mi
1607 Cliftview Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,475	$1.23	44d	1	0.62mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-668 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	24d	1	0.62mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	11d	1	0.64mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.66mi
724 E 35th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.69mi
1504 Upshire Rd Unit 1E Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.70mi
721 E 36th St Unit Na Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,650	$1.43	44d	1	0.75mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.76mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	44d	1	0.78mi
2535 Greenmount Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	44d	1	0.79mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	44d	1	0.81mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	44d	1	0.81mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,875	$1.40	24d	1	0.81mi
646 Cokesbury Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	44d	1	0.81mi
411 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.84mi
400 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	20d	1	0.84mi
3529 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,575	$1.20	44d	1	0.88mi
3721 Ellerslie Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,603	$1.79	2d	1	0.89mi
2516 Barclay St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	16d	1	0.89mi
1803 N Dallas St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,100	$1.68	24d	1	0.91mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	44d	1	0.91mi
1514 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1215	$2,000	$1.65	24d	1	0.92mi
1512 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1476	$1,950	$1.32	44d	1	0.92mi
1814 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	24d	1	0.92mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	18d	1	0.96mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	4d	1	0.97mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	18d	1	0.97mi
1627 Rutland Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $84,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $84,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $84,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   status Active
10. 2026-04-18
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-05
    listed $84,900 Active
12. 2026-03-04
    historical $84,900
13. 1998-11-30
    soldstatus $3,500
14. 1998-09-09
    historical
15. 1998-07-15
    listed $7,900
16. 1998-05-30
    historical
17. 1998-03-17
    listed
18. 1997-12-12
    historical
19. 1996-12-19
    listed
20. 1994-06-30
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$493
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $9,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $7,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+898.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Coming Soon $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-11-30 Sold (MLS) $3,500 MRIS
• 1998-09-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-07-15 Listed $7,900 MRIS
• 1998-05-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-03-17 Listed — MRIS
• 1997-12-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-12-19 Listed — MRIS
• 1994-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $493 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.