17200 S La Villita Rd #104 · Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$74,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 825 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MH situated on a land lease lot, offers a great opportunity with plenty of potential to make it your own. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout with bright, welcoming spaces that create a comfortable and airy feel throughout. Key updates include a well-maintained roof and a newly installed A/C unit, along with added mini-split systems to provide extra comfort and efficiency during Arizona's hot summer days. The fenced backyard offers a private outdoor space perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating memorable moments. Conveniently located just minutes from shopping, hospital, and freeway access.

Key facts

• Well-maintained roof
• Fenced backyard
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL-MAINTAINED ROOF
• NEWLY INSTALLED A/C UNIT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in an HOA (Los Arboles MH park) with monthly fees; HOA includes water and sewer; Community amenities include a park and walking trail

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Siding exterior; Built-up and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wire fencing; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Chip-and-seal road access (HOA maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wrightson Ridge K-8 School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #498 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 795 students, 47% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,749 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.95%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $44,179
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $98,245
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85629

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $74,999

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,013	-5% $987	+0% $962	+5% $936	+10% $910
Rent	-10% $814	-5% $888	+0% $962	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,110
Rate	-1.0pp $999	-0.5pp $981	base $962	+0.5pp $942	+1.0pp $922

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,999 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,999 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,999 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $74,999 Active 613-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,640
• After-tax cash flow: $8,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern updates and a good location. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace air filters — Improves air quality and HVAC efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace air filters — Improves air quality and HVAC efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sahuarita

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #8414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sahuarita, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 31,668
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,668
• Household income: $109,253
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.38%
• Current HPI: 234.6422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $74,999 MLSSAZ