4419 Loblolly Bay Rd · Fort Denaud, FL 33935

$649,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1980 4.50 ac lot Est $502k · 29% over ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing. The second residence is a 2/2 14x66 mobile home, a 1978 but lightly used, with an oversized screened front porch almost doubling its size! The third residence is a cozy 1/1 efficiency with a large front wood deck for outside living! Property includes 2 pole/garage combination buildings, one with a large side apron for equipment parking plus a lift for the mechanic or hobbyist. Built before current zoning regulations, this is a property that cannot be duplicated, truly a one-of-a -kind! Don’t let it slip through your fingers!

Key facts

• Open rear patio
• Tranquil pond
• 4.5 acres

Tags

• 4.5 ACRES
• TRANQUIL POND
• OPEN REAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-825 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $504k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Denaud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#635 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Glades (town): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #63 of 73 in FL (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Glades School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 950 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Glades County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,393/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Glades County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,300 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,077
• List price: $649,900
• Delta: 29.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $301,374
• Equity at exit: $585,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $928,694
• Equity at exit: $1,262,613

Cash invested: $181,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 950
• Price-to-rent: 37.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,408
• Tax from tax record: −$616 /mo · $7,395/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$923
• Net cashflow: $-825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,437

Max offer price $504,216

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-457	-5% $-641	+0% $-825	+5% $-1,009	+10% $-1,193
Rent	-10% $-1,172	-5% $-998	+0% $-825	+5% $-651	+10% $-478
Rate	-1.0pp $-497	-0.5pp $-659	base $-825	+0.5pp $-993	+1.0pp $-1,164

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	2	$4,392
Total (3 units)			$4,393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,475
• Closing costs: $19,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $649,900 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $649,900 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,900 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,900 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,900 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,900 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $649,900 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $649,900 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,900 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $649,900 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $649,900 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $649,900 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,900 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,900 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $649,900 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,900 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,900 Active 216 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $699,900 Active 215 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $675,000 1252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1252 chars)

    INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing. The second residence is a 2/2 14x66 mobile home, a 1978 but lightly used, with an oversized screened front porch almost doubling its size! The third residence is a cozy 1/1 efficiency with a large front wood deck for outside living! Property includes 2 pole/garage combination buildings, one with a large side apron for equipment parking plus a lift for the mechanic or hobbyist. Built before current zoning regulations, this is a property that cannot be duplicated, truly a one-of-a -kind! Don’t let it slip through your fingers!

20. 2026-05-15
    price $649,900 1252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1252 chars)

    INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing. The second residence is a 2/2 14x66 mobile home, a 1978 but lightly used, with an oversized screened front porch almost doubling its size! The third residence is a cozy 1/1 efficiency with a large front wood deck for outside living! Property includes 2 pole/garage combination buildings, one with a large side apron for equipment parking plus a lift for the mechanic or hobbyist. Built before current zoning regulations, this is a property that cannot be duplicated, truly a one-of-a -kind! Don’t let it slip through your fingers!

21. 2026-03-24
    price $675,000 1252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1252 chars)

    INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing. The second residence is a 2/2 14x66 mobile home, a 1978 but lightly used, with an oversized screened front porch almost doubling its size! The third residence is a cozy 1/1 efficiency with a large front wood deck for outside living! Property includes 2 pole/garage combination buildings, one with a large side apron for equipment parking plus a lift for the mechanic or hobbyist. Built before current zoning regulations, this is a property that cannot be duplicated, truly a one-of-a -kind! Don’t let it slip through your fingers!

22. 2025-10-27
    listed $699,900 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing.

23. 2025-10-20
    listed $699,900 Active 1252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1252 chars)

    INVESTOR’S DREAM, FAMILY COMPOUND, & RURAL RETREAT IN ONE! 4.5 ACRES OF SCENIC BEAUTY – 3 RESIDENCES – 2 POLEBARN/GARAGES - SO MUCH POTENTIAL! Whether renting residences and barn/garage buildings for investment or utilizing as a family compound or a little of both, here is your opportunity for a smart investment or a nature enthusiast’s retreat! This breathtaking 4.5 acres includes half of a tranquil pond and boasts wildlife friends including wood storks, Elvis, Priscilla and Lisa Marie and wild turkeys, Tom, Jerry and Dale! Main home is a CBS with galvalume roof and is a 2/2, built in 1980. Home enjoys a full length front screened porch and open rear patio for barbecuing. The second residence is a 2/2 14x66 mobile home, a 1978 but lightly used, with an oversized screened front porch almost doubling its size! The third residence is a cozy 1/1 efficiency with a large front wood deck for outside living! Property includes 2 pole/garage combination buildings, one with a large side apron for equipment parking plus a lift for the mechanic or hobbyist. Built before current zoning regulations, this is a property that cannot be duplicated, truly a one-of-a -kind! Don’t let it slip through your fingers!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,395 · $616/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,395 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,405
• − Property taxes: −$7,395
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,217
• − Management: −$4,217
• − Depreciation: −$18,906
• Taxable loss: −$21,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,202
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glades
• NCES district ID: 1200660
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,758
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5622
• State rank: #63 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Denaud

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12451

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Glades County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,901 people
• By 2030: 15,463 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 16,341 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 17,158 · +15.1%
• By 2075: 18,881 · +26.7%
• By 2100: 19,164 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Glades

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 23.1% · R 76.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $675,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $649,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $675,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $699,900 MARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $699,900 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,395 · +182.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.