13405 Yellow Perch Dr · Conroe, TX 77384

$282,306

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,940 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 4,869 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $277k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love where you live in River's Edge in Conroe, TX! Home is zoned to the excellent Woodlands schools Eissler Elementary School, Mitchell Intermediate School, McCullough Junior High School, and Woodlands High School. The Lowry floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The first floor offers the perfect entertainment space with an open kitchen overlooking the dining and family rooms and vinyl plank flooring! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets and granite countertops! Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call River's Edge home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Private retreat

Tags

• ZONED TO EXCELLENT SCHOOLS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bush El (math 70% / reading 59%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 880 students, 20% FRL); Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 316 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,105 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,490
• List price: $282,306
• Delta: 1.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-57,272
• Equity at exit: $42,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-78,578
• Equity at exit: $24,409

Cash invested: $79,046 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77384

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,480
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $265,046

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-18	+0% $-98	+5% $-178	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-180	+0% $-98	+5% $-16	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-26	base $-98	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,576
• Closing costs: $8,469
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13625 Goldeye Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.18mi
2412 Cavefish Ct Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,700	$1.25	16d	1	0.30mi
2417 Carp Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.56mi
9811 Laurel Lake Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1830	$3,153	$1.72	0d	1	0.76mi
9857 Laurel Lake Dr Shenandoah, TX	4.0	2.0	1717	$2,250	$1.31	24d	1	0.88mi
9857 Laurel Lake Dr Shenandoah, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,900	$1.46	45d	1	0.88mi
165 Carriage Hills Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,978	$1.98	1d	29	1.07mi
14221 Rainier Peak Xing Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,366	$1.03	1d	1	1.17mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,214	$1.40	1d	1	1.25mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,754	$1.25	12d	1	1.27mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,714	$1.22	1d	1	1.27mi
175 Merryweather Pl Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,990	$1.10	19d	1	1.29mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,765	$1.25	13d	1	1.33mi
2477 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$2,127	$1.88	0d	36	1.33mi
2443 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,385	$2.26	1d	36	1.36mi
14273 Lake Lodge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2280	$2,550	$1.12	45d	1	1.37mi
14006 Juniper Point Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2242	$2,450	$1.09	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $282,306 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Love where you live in River's Edge in Conroe, TX! Home is zoned to the excellent Woodlands schools Eissler Elementary School, Mitchell Intermediate School, McCullough Junior High School, and Woodlands High School. The Lowry floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The first floor offers the perfect entertainment space with an open kitchen overlooking the dining and family rooms and vinyl plank flooring! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets and granite countertops! Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call River's Edge home, schedule a visit today!

2. 2026-05-02
   price $282,306 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $282,231 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

4. 2026-04-11
   listed $282,161 Active 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

5. 2026-02-23
   listed $281,966 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Love where you live in River's Edge in Conroe, TX! Home is zoned to the excellent Woodlands schools Eissler Elementary School, Mitchell Intermediate School, McCullough Junior High School, and Woodlands High School. The Lowry floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The first floor offers the perfect entertainment space with an open kitchen overlooking the dining and family rooms and vinyl plank flooring! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets and granite countertops! Upstairs offers a private retreat for all bedrooms! Retreat to the Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call River's Edge home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,166 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,089/yr (+$341/mo · 379.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,814
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,213
• Taxable loss: −$6,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $91,667
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.42%
• Current HPI: 220.403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $282,306 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $282,306 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $282,231 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Listed $282,161 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Listed $281,966 HARMLS

Property tax history

+42.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.