16101 N El Mirage Rd #317 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition $89/sqft · 39% above area Est $93k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This adorable 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a popular split floor plan and fantastic natural light. Every bedroom includes a generous walk-in closet, and skylights brighten the living spaces throughout. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of room to cook and entertain, complete with a gas range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and a large walk-in pantry. Outside, relax on the screened-in patio, a beautifully manicured front and backyard with mature landscaping, low-maintenance artificial grass in the back, and a handy storage shed. Residents enjoy access to an impressive array of resort-style amenities, including a clubhouse with billiards, a fitness center, a heated swimming pool and spa, p

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• MANICURED FRONT AND BACKYARD
• ARTIFICIAL GRASS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property information and building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: No association fees; Land lease: $1,105 monthly; Community pool and heated spa; Pickleball courts; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio; Storage; Shed(s); Sprinklers front and rear; Synthetic grass in back; Automatic water timers front and back; Desert front and back landscaping; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Skylights; Dual-pane windows; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.48%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,067
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 38.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #434	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-2%)	6mo	$120,000	$84	89
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #320	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	14mo	$135,900	$93	86
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #425	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-2%)	7mo	$97,750	$68	86
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #378	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-5%)	4mo	$112,000	$81	85
16101 N El Mirage Rd #16	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$96	84
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	0mo	$64,000	$48	83
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #435	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	15mo	$105,000	$75	80
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #369	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-9%)	8mo	$85,000	$64	78
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #426	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	7mo	$115,000	$73	76
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #354	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-9%)	11mo	$90,000	$68	74
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #445	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-7%)	22mo	$92,000	$68	68
15632 N Greasewood St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	20mo	$315,000	$233	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $14,750
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $44,478
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.13mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.17mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.27mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	0.37mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	1d	17	0.50mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	1d	3	0.51mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.60mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	3d	1	0.77mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	43d	1	0.77mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	21d	1	0.78mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.78mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	23d	1	0.82mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	0.84mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	0.86mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	0.92mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	5d	1	0.97mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	23d	4	0.99mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	4d	1	1.03mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.07mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	1.07mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	1.09mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	43d	1	1.09mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	1.11mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	43d	1	1.14mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.23mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	23d	1	1.33mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	14d	1	1.33mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	1.38mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	1.38mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	1.38mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	1.38mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	1.44mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	1.44mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,795	$1.18	10d	1	1.44mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	1d	1	1.45mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	24d	1	1.45mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.45mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	1.49mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $129,000 Active 747-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $6,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,456
• After-tax cash flow: $6,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, split-floor plan home is move-in ready with good condition and potential for further value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Resale Replace ceiling fans — Modernize and improve air circulation
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can add value
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can add value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Replace ceiling fans — Modernize and improve air circulation ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can add value ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $129,000 ARMLS