27208 N 204th Pl · Surprise, AZ 85361

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1997 1.14 ac lot Est $291k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover serene desert living with this spacious triple-wide modular home in Wittmann, AZ! Situated on over an acre, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property features a bright kitchen with a skylight, a covered carport, and a storage shed. Enjoy open living spaces, breathtaking Arizona sunsets, and endless potential for outdoor activities or personal touches. Embrace tranquility and convenience with this must-have home!

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Soaking tub
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size recorded by assessor; Building area source: Assessor
• Financial info: Private financing reported
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Carport (1 space); RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link, wood, and wire fencing; Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back; Other exterior features; Mountain views; Horses allowed; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Full bath in primary bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Solar screens; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible hallways
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer/dryer hook-ups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($62/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL); Mountainside High School (223 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,312
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27208 N 204th Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,029 (+7%)	16mo	$310,000	$153	76
26835 N Silver Bell Rd #234	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	8mo	$199,000	$118	47
20944 W Jomax Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-13%)	23mo	$430,000	$261	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $163,027
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $479,536
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $957/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,243

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29319 N 203rd Ave Wittmann, AZ	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,250	$1.07	1d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $299,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-04-15
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
6. 2026-03-16
   status Active
7. 2026-02-28
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
8. 2026-02-20
   price $299,000
9. 2026-02-05
   price $310,000
10. 2026-01-15
    price $320,000
11. 2026-01-08
    status Active
12. 2025-11-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
13. 2025-11-01
    status Active
14. 2025-10-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
15. 2025-10-10
    price $325,000
16. 2025-09-29
    listed $349,000 Active
17. 2025-09-11
    historical
18. 2025-09-02
    status Active
19. 2025-09-02
    historical
20. 2025-08-12
    price $349,900
21. 2025-06-06
    price $399,900
22. 2025-06-06
    price $419,900
23. 2025-04-28
    listed $439,900 Active
24. 2025-02-12
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Discover serene desert living with this spacious triple-wide modular home in Wittmann, AZ! Situated on over an acre, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property features a bright kitchen with a skylight, a covered carport, and a storage shed. Enjoy open living spaces, breathtaking Arizona sunsets, and endless potential for outdoor activities or personal touches. Embrace tranquility and convenience with this must-have home!

25. 2025-02-12
    soldstatus $310,000

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Discover serene desert living with this spacious triple-wide modular home in Wittmann, AZ! Situated on over an acre, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property features a bright kitchen with a skylight, a covered carport, and a storage shed. Enjoy open living spaces, breathtaking Arizona sunsets, and endless potential for outdoor activities or personal touches. Embrace tranquility and convenience with this must-have home!

26. 2025-01-26
    status Pending 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Discover serene desert living with this spacious triple-wide modular home in Wittmann, AZ! Situated on over an acre, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property features a bright kitchen with a skylight, a covered carport, and a storage shed. Enjoy open living spaces, breathtaking Arizona sunsets, and endless potential for outdoor activities or personal touches. Embrace tranquility and convenience with this must-have home!

27. 2025-01-02
    listed $350,000 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Discover serene desert living with this spacious triple-wide modular home in Wittmann, AZ! Situated on over an acre, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property features a bright kitchen with a skylight, a covered carport, and a storage shed. Enjoy open living spaces, breathtaking Arizona sunsets, and endless potential for outdoor activities or personal touches. Embrace tranquility and convenience with this must-have home!

28. 2008-11-21
    soldstatus $105,900
29. 2008-09-22
    historical
30. 2008-08-12
    listed $107,900
31. 2008-07-20
    historical
32. 2008-02-19
    listed $139,000
33. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $145,000
34. 2005-06-22
    soldstatus $149,000
35. 2005-05-14
    historical
36. 2005-03-09
    listed $149,500
37. 1994-12-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 106.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$957
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1395.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $349,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $399,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $419,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $439,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-12 Sold (MLS) $310,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2008-11-21 Sold (MLS) $105,900 ARMLS
• 2008-09-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-12 Listed $107,900 ARMLS
• 2008-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-02-19 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-22 Sold (MLS) $149,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-03-09 Listed $149,500 ARMLS
• 1994-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $957 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.