19 Spinet Dr #19 · Brighton, NY 14625

$115,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $137k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come Tour This Beautiful Pre-loved Home Before It's Gone!! Call Today!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $115,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-level entry (plan: Penfield); Spec inventory home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,456

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Spec-built model named "Penfield"

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $116k).
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $115,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.71%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,864
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Sebastian Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-5%)	10mo	$130,000	$94	76
7 Skyway Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$134,000	$92	75
34 Ewald Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-5%)	11mo	$130,000	$94	74
2 Penview Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-4%)	9mo	$155,000	$110	70
1 Beatrice Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-5%)	13mo	$132,000	$95	68
23 Ewald Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-5%)	20mo	$136,000	$98	65
2 Wayside Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	15mo	$140,000	$88	50
27 Elderberry Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	24mo	$90,000	$69	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $58,258
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $150,036
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1261	$4,123	$3.27	2d	10	0.76mi
278 Penn Ln Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1184	$2,100	$1.77	2d	1	0.82mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	2d	1	0.84mi
3765 East Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1826	$2,900	$1.59	2d	1	1.05mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.44mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 70-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $115,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,442
• − Management: −$2,442
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $13,464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,231
• After-tax cash flow: $11,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brighton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1379

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 38,703
• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B