161 Madisonville Dr · Canton, MS 39046

$286,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come check the NEW construction homes in MADISON COUNTIES NEWEST DEVELOPMENT and only minutes from the Reservoir. And it is located in the GERMANTOWN SCHOOL DISTRICT. This is a 4/2 OPEN SPLIT PLAN sits on a lot with a nice back yard. It has a open kitchen with a bar. Kitchen also has granite counter tops and stainless steel GE appliances. This home has a nice size family room with brick gas log fireplace. The master bath has a tub, separate shower, and a large walk in closet. So don't miss out on this one. This home comes with a sodded yard, gas log fireplace, and much more, Many other plans and lots to choose from so call a Realtor today to view all of them. These homes do qualify USDA

Key facts

• Granite counter tops
• Large walk in closet
• Open kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL GE APPLIANCES
• BRICK GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $286,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,369.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Canton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $250,000 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,369
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-3%)	9mo	$272,900	$181	83
247 Hemingway Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-3%)	4mo	$275,000	$183	81
201 Hemingway Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-2%)	9mo	$274,900	$180	80
136 Madisonville Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-2%)	9mo	$275,900	$181	80
133 Madisonville Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-2%)	11mo	$274,900	$180	80
134 Madisonville Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-3%)	9mo	$272,900	$181	78
205 Hemingway Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-3%)	9mo	$274,400	$182	76
203 Hemingway Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-3%)	9mo	$274,400	$182	76
126 Madisonville Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+11%)	3mo	$299,999	$174	72
106 Madisonville Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (+12%)	3mo	$294,999	$170	68
104 Bridge Hollow Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+8%)	4mo	$279,000	$167	57
111 Bridge Park Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (+14%)	6mo	$269,900	$154	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,091
• Equity at exit: $41,804

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-38,666
• Equity at exit: $24,241

Cash invested: $78,503 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,206/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,494

Max offer price $280,369

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $101	+0% $4	+5% $-92	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-94	+0% $4	+5% $103	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $76	base $4	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,092
• Closing costs: $8,411
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Trailbridge Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	15d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $286,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,705
• − Property taxes: −$4,206
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,156
• Taxable loss: −$4,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a major roof repair, exterior siding repair, and landscaping maintenance. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent aerial image shows significant damage to the roof.
• Major exterior siding — The independent aerial image shows significant damage to the exterior siding.
• Major exterior landscaping — The independent aerial image shows overgrown and unkempt landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair roof — A repaired roof will significantly increase the home's resale value by addressing a major safety and aesthetic issue.
• Resale repair exterior siding — A repaired exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Both trim and maintain landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent aerial image shows significant damage to the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The independent aerial image shows significant damage to the exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior landscaping · The independent aerial image shows overgrown and unkempt landscaping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale repair roof — A repaired roof will significantly increase the home's resale value by addressing a major safety and aesthetic issue. ↑
• Resale repair exterior siding — A repaired exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both trim and maintain landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Canton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,160
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-14 Listed $286,900 MLSU