Pima Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$166,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Calaveras lake
• Garage

Tags

• GRACE GARDENS MASTERPLAN
• PROXIMITY TO LOOP 410
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• CALAVERAS LAKE
• NEAR BROOKS CITY BASE

🏗️ New construction. The $166,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,976.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $167k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 389 students, 88% FRL); Garner Middle (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 804 students, 83% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,055 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $146,959 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.05%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 19.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,976
• List price: $166,999
• Delta: -55.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Chisholm Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-6%)	2mo	$299,000	$233	76
271 Middlebury	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,332 (-2%)	6mo	$170,000	$128	53
8715 Oak Ledge	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+11%)	10mo	$359,000	$238	44
8618 Sagebrush Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+14%)	24mo	$325,000	$209	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-148,129
• Equity at exit: $55,463

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.44×
• Total profit: $-254,134
• Equity at exit: $32,162

Cash invested: $104,153 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,951
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$465 /mo · $5,580/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-1,306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,254

Max offer price $182,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,049	-5% $-1,178	+0% $-1,306	+5% $-1,435	+10% $-1,563
Rent	-10% $-1,433	-5% $-1,369	+0% $-1,306	+5% $-1,243	+10% $-1,180
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,119	-0.5pp $-1,211	base $-1,306	+0.5pp $-1,402	+1.0pp $-1,501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,994
• Closing costs: $11,159
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1983 Oakwell Farms Pkwy Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,152	$1.13	0d	1	0.47mi
1422 NE Loop 410 San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,165	$1.21	4d	8	0.50mi
8555 Laurens Ln San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,599	$1.79	5d	28	0.50mi
8555 Laurens Ln Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,373	$1.28	13d	1	0.53mi
414 Laramie Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	0.53mi
515 Cave Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,500	$1.44	0d	1	0.59mi
8702 Village Dr #1306 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	46d	1	0.64mi
3270 Nacogdoches Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,150	$1.62	5d	1	0.67mi
33 Lynn Batts Ln San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,680	$1.62	5d	22	0.67mi
2935 Nacogdoches Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,300	$1.30	46d	2	0.68mi
407 Haverford Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	5d	1	0.74mi
123 Westchester Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1337	$1,895	$1.42	26d	1	0.75mi
2811 Woodbury St #201 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	982	$1,295	$1.32	10d	1	0.76mi
2811 Woodbury Dr #403 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	982	$1,190	$1.21	10d	1	0.76mi
2803 Woodbury St San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$950	$1.15	10d	1	0.78mi
2606 Country Square St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,500	$1.39	26d	1	0.80mi
231 Middlebury Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,100	$1.59	46d	1	0.81mi
3216 Urban Crest Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	930	$1,650	$1.77	20d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,357	$1.05	5d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit X07 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1082	$1,225	$1.13	17d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt X1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1453	$1,549	$1.07	5d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Apt Y8 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,349	$1.02	5d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit Q01 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1292	$1,249	$0.97	0d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit P05 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	986	$1,099	$1.11	5d	1	0.82mi
8623 Starcrest Dr Unit X05 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1873	$1,699	$0.91	0d	1	0.82mi
3831 Harry Wurzbach Rd #6 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1506	$2,000	$1.33	16d	1	0.84mi
3831 Harry Wurzbach Rd #6 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1506	$2,000	$1.33	0d	1	0.84mi
3819 Harry Wurzbach Rd Unit 3213 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,949	$1.44	0d	1	0.90mi
3819 Harry Wurzbach Rd Unit 2213 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,589	$1.58	0d	1	0.90mi
3223 Oakleaf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,850	$1.20	26d	1	0.90mi
8800 Starcrest Dr Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$815	$0.85	46d	1	0.94mi
8800 Starcrest Dr San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1196	$1,299	$1.09	0d	16	0.98mi
211 Eastley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	987	$1,550	$1.57	26d	1	1.03mi
3843 Barrington St San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	869	$1,300	$1.50	46d	2	1.13mi
3843 Barrington St Unit 165Q San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	888	$995	$1.12	46d	1	1.13mi
3843 Barrington St Unit 242K San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	884	$1,495	$1.69	18d	1	1.13mi
10014 Broadway San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,540	$1.45	26d	15	1.17mi
3518 Herron Ct San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$1,800	$1.02	26d	1	1.21mi
151 Treasure Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1314	$1,500	$1.14	46d	2	1.21mi
3903 Barrington St Apt 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1004	$919	$0.92	0d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $166,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $166,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $166,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $166,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $166,999 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $166,999 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $166,999 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $166,999 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $166,999 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $166,999 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $166,999 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $166,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,999 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $167,999 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $168,999 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    The Wellton Collection is a new series of single-family homes in the Grace Gardens masterplan in San Antonio, TX, offering affordable new home options with a variety of floorplan designs. Residents will enjoy proximity to Loop 410 for easy access to local shopping, dining and entertainment options. Outdoor recreation is a short drive away on Calaveras Lake, and the community is located near Brooks City Base, perfect for military families and personnel.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,836
• − Property taxes: −$5,580
• − Insurance: −$1,860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$10,821
• Taxable loss: −$22,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in San Antonio, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a new home experience with modern amenities and a prime location.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North East ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,715
• Composite: 38.1/100
• National rank: #4276
• State rank: #276 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2809.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $167,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $168,999 Zillow