682 Gwynns Chapel Rd · Ruffin, NC 27311

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1968 0.50 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in Pelham with strong value-add potential. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers over 1,300 square feet and sits on a half-acre lot, giving plenty of space for renovation or expansion. The property needs significant repairs and is being sold as-is, making it a great fit for investors or flippers ready to take on a full rehab. Located just minutes from Danville, VA and the new Caesars Virginia casino resort, the area is seeing increased traffic and growth, creating a clear path to a profitable resale or long-term rental. Cash only.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Significant repairs
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• SIGNIFICANT REPAIRS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Field parking
• Utilities: Well water source; Septic sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-story house; Stick/site-built construction; Built in 1968; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot; Well water; Septic tank; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary on main
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Wall furnace heating; Oil-fired heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#652 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $748 of equity ($345 loan paydown + $403 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.10%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $36,883
• Equity at exit: $16,538

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $87,820
• Equity at exit: $21,598

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27311

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $409

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $586	+0% $572	+5% $558	+10% $543
Rent	-10% $482	-5% $527	+0% $572	+5% $616	+10% $661
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $584	base $572	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $49,900
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $5,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caswell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,172
• Composite: 25.44/100
• National rank: #7452
• State rank: #146 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ruffin

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #23552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,656

Population outlook (Caswell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,389 people
• By 2030: 20,297 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 17,848 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 15,578 · -27.2%
• By 2075: 11,939 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 8,930 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caswell

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.4% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: 3.1pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+18.5 2016: R+11.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Current HPI: 209.3845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $49,900 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $54,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.