3535 State Route 2837 · Wheatcroft, KY 42404

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 2011

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on 2.21 acres of peaceful country setting. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with a spacious living room and kitchen, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The large master suite provides a comfortable retreat at the end of the day. Step out back to a covered porch where you can relax and take in the view of your own stocked pond. This property offers both comfort and charm in a beautiful rural setting.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Stocked pond
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCH
• STOCKED POND
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($406/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#436 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clay Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 194 students, 65% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $140k implies a 618% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,475 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $78,332
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $228,836
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42404

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $73	+0% $34	+5% $-6	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $-9	+0% $34	+5% $77	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $69	base $34	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-01
   listed $140,000 Active
3. 1992-12-01
   soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 228.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$491
• After-tax cash flow: $898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Wheatcroft

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #21517

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,268

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.08%
• Current HPI: 223.0427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+617.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-10 Pending — HABOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $140,000 HABOR
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +242.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.