108 W Toulon Dr · Cheektowaga, NY 14227

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 5,663 sqft lot Est $222k · 28% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This three bedroom raised ranch has only ever had one owner. Nicely vinyl-sided with vinyl replacement windows. This house has phenomenal potential! Offers reviewed as received. The square footage differs from the taxes from an appraiser measurement of 1350.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 space; Garage has electricity, storage, and water available
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer available; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Partial fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Combined living/dining room; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Sump pump in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,899 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
63 W Cherbourg Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	960 (+7%)	3mo	$280,000	$292	78
54 Mayberry Dr W	0.35mi	3/1.0	875 (-3%)	2mo	$175,000	$200	77
7 East Toulon Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	3mo	$263,500	$274	73
7 Cannas Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0	912 (+1%)	9mo	$225,000	$247	69
392 French Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	888 (-1%)	17mo	$173,720	$196	62
51 E Rouen Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	984 (+9%)	11mo	$255,000	$259	57
26 Mayberry Dr W	0.41mi	3/1.0	800 (-11%)	9mo	$238,500	$298	55
124 Dartwood Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0	960 (+7%)	3mo	$285,000	$297	51
12 Fradine Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+11%)	19mo	$211,500	$212	46
341 French Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5	960 (+7%)	20mo	$229,000	$239	46
87 Colette Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+15%)	14mo	$225,000	$218	31
98 Colette Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+15%)	15mo	$196,000	$190	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-37,958
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,983
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14227

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,451 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,681

Max offer price $127,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-136	+0% $-181	+5% $-226	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-238	+0% $-181	+5% $-124	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-140	base $-181	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Slate Creek Dr Cheektowaga, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,310	$1.93	3d	38	0.20mi
2341 Union Rd West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	804	$2,005	$2.49	3d	1	1.04mi
42 Haley Ln Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	837	$1,358	$1.62	3d	1	1.05mi
65 Edgebrook Ests Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,290	$1.79	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $159,900
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,070 · $422/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,070 · $422/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,393
• − Management: −$1,393
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$4,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,621
• Household income: $68,928
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 31% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.77%
• Current HPI: 306.8358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,070 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.