183 Cr 3496 · Hawkins, TX 75765

$139,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 236 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition 0.46 ac lot $124/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Hawkins retreat property for your next home, investment property, flipper or Lake area getaway. Is in need of some ceiling sheetrock and insulation repair. Property is in an Estate so seller is not aware how the sheetrock and insulation have fallen in places. Diamond in the rough!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 2015
• Listed 235 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $139k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in Hawkins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Hawkins H S / Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 386 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.37%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,000
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -55.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Private Road 7498	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	964 (-14%)	2mo	$315,000	$327	46
2311 County Road 3440	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,209 (+8%)	30mo	$265,000	$219	35
1603 County Road 3440	0.85mi	2/1.0	1,027 (-8%)	27mo	$262,000	$255	29
3171 CR 3440	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+16%)	35mo	$424,900	$327	27
4689 S FM 2869	0.78mi	2/1.0	884 (-21%)	23mo	$310,000	$351	19
591 County Road 3460	1.43mi	2/2.0	936 (-16%)	26mo	$265,000	$283	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $45,084
• Equity at exit: $63,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $120,936
• Equity at exit: $98,078

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,900 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +80.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $473	+0% $434	+5% $394	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $366	+0% $434	+5% $502	+10% $570
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $469	base $434	+0.5pp $398	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
258 Private Road 7422 Unit 7422 Hawkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	0d	1	0.93mi
230 Private Road 7422 Unit 7422 Hawkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	184d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $139,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $139,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $139,000 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 218 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 217 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $139,000 Active 216 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 215 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 214 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 213 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 212 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 211 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 210 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 209 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 208 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $139,000 Active 207 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 206 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 205 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 204 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $139,000 Active 203 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 202 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 201 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 200 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 198 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 197 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 196 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 195 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 194 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 193 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 192 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 191 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 190 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 189 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 188 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 187 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 185 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$71/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$757
• After-tax cash flow: $4,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $28,000–$50,400 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including ceiling sheetrock and insulation, to become move-in ready. It has potential for significant value increase with these improvements.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows appear to be old and possibly not functioning properly.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel appears to be old and possibly not up to code.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The plumbing fixtures appear to be old and possibly not functioning properly.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing siding.

Repairs flagged

• Major ceiling sheetrock — Exposed ceiling
• Major insulation — Missing insulation

Value-add opportunities

• Both ceiling sheetrock and insulation — Improves safety and comfort ↑
• Both paint — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hawkins El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 High Hawkins H S / Middle F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hawkins

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wood · 46,480 people
• Population (ZIP): 8,195
• Household income: $58,438
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $145,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $150,000 GTAR
• 2011-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,697 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.