2822 Circle Ridge Dr · Lakeside, FL 32065

$335,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1981 0.36 ac lot Est $460k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch style, All brick,screen pation, in ground pool, detached game room,building, fireplace, skylight. Selling as, where is. Seller will not pay for a survey.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Voluntary association with a $50 fee; association reports no amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; On-street parking; Additional/other parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: In-ground salt water private pool; Outdoor shower; Screened porch/patio; Wood privacy fencing in backyard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-90/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeview Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 588 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park Junior High School (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Ridgeview High School (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 1,828 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,695 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $459,525
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2911 Circle Ridge Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,568 (-8%)	8mo	$425,000	$165	75
2816 Circle Ridge Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,454 (-12%)	23mo	$385,000	$157	59
2305 Locustwood Ct	0.43mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,635 (-5%)	9mo	$427,000	$162	58
2849 Circle Ridge Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,003 (+8%)	20mo	$460,000	$153	58
2453 Charwood Ct	0.50mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,648 (-5%)	3mo	$475,000	$179	57
2852 Circle Ridge Dr	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (-13%)	8mo	$460,000	$189	53
2368 Stonebridge Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,498 (-10%)	16mo	$470,000	$188	51
2896 Circle Ridge Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,424 (-13%)	23mo	$420,000	$173	50
3187 Bliss Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,700 (-3%)	15mo	$550,000	$204	50
1064 Amber Ct	0.52mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,992 (+7%)	16mo	$386,000	$129	39
804 Oliver Ellsworth St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,386 (-14%)	14mo	$390,000	$163	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-52,887
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-38,843
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32065

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,522/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,666

Max offer price $333,668

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $87	+0% $-8	+5% $-102	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-112	+0% $-8	+5% $97	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $78	base $-8	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3150 Highland Grove Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	3.0	1987	$2,300	$1.16	12d	1	0.56mi
1959 Sussex Dr N Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,475	$1.22	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,000 Active 326 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 325 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $335,000
16. 2026-05-07
    price $345,000
17. 2026-04-20
    status Active
18. 2026-04-20
    price $352,000
19. 2026-04-06
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-03-18
    price $362,000
21. 2026-03-11
    price $372,000
22. 2026-02-22
    status Active
23. 2026-02-07
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2026-02-02
    status Active
25. 2026-01-25
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2026-01-16
    price $382,000
27. 2026-01-08
    status Active
28. 2026-01-08
    price $389,000
29. 2025-12-27
    historical
30. 2025-12-23
    status Active
31. 2025-12-11
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2025-11-25
    price $399,000
33. 2025-11-15
    price $409,000
34. 2025-10-26
    price $415,000
35. 2025-09-25
    price $430,000
36. 2025-08-25
    price $440,000
37. 2025-08-08
    price $460,000
38. 2025-08-02
    price $470,000
39. 2025-07-05
    listed $475,000 Active
40. 2007-09-07
    historical 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Ranch style, All brick,screen pation, in ground pool, detached game room,building, fireplace, skylight. Selling as, where is. Seller will not pay for a survey.

41. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus $230,000 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Ranch style, All brick,screen pation, in ground pool, detached game room,building, fireplace, skylight. Selling as, where is. Seller will not pay for a survey.

42. 2007-02-06
    listed $259,900 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (159 chars)

    Ranch style, All brick,screen pation, in ground pool, detached game room,building, fireplace, skylight. Selling as, where is. Seller will not pay for a survey.

43. 2006-09-12
    historical 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Priced below appraisal. All brk, beautiful inground pool 19x36, game rm, eat-in kit., breakfast bar, lrg grt.rm.,w/stone fireplace, skylights. Loft in 1 bdrm., gamerm attached by breezeway. SqFt. includes game rm. Freshly painted interior, lrg screened porch overlooking pool. All areas tiled except bdrms, baths.

44. 2006-06-14
    listed $289,900 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    Priced below appraisal. All brk, beautiful inground pool 19x36, game rm, eat-in kit., breakfast bar, lrg grt.rm.,w/stone fireplace, skylights. Loft in 1 bdrm., gamerm attached by breezeway. SqFt. includes game rm. Freshly painted interior, lrg screened porch overlooking pool. All areas tiled except bdrms, baths.

45. 2006-06-11
    historical
46. 2006-01-13
    listed $295,000
47. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $279,900
48. 2005-09-13
    historical
49. 2005-09-12
    soldstatus $279,900
50. 2005-08-04
    listed $279,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,522 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,780 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$22/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$2,522
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,551
• − Management: −$2,551
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$5,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,422
• After-tax cash flow: $1,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,578
• Household income: $97,455
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.13%
• Current HPI: 276.5987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+162.7% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $335,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $345,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $352,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $362,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $372,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-07 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-01-25 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $382,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $389,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-12-11 Contingent — realMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $399,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $409,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $415,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $430,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $440,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $460,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $470,000 realMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listed $475,000 realMLS
• 2007-09-07 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) $230,000 realMLS
• 2007-02-06 Listed $259,900 realMLS
• 2006-09-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-06-14 Listed $289,900 realMLS
• 2006-06-11 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-01-13 Listed $295,000 realMLS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $279,900 Public Records
• 2005-09-13 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-09-12 Sold (MLS) $279,900 realMLS
• 2005-08-04 Listed $279,900 realMLS
• 2001-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1994-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,522 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.