5200 Entrar Dr #124 · Palmdale, CA 93551

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $214k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICELY KEPT mobile home in BOULDERS at the Ranch II! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Living Room with a Fireplace, Indoor Laundry Area, Covered Porch and is nicely landscaped. This is a STANDARD SALE!!

Key facts

• New awnings
• Fresh paint
• Brand new roof

Tags

• GATED MOBILE HOME PARK
• NEW SKIRTING
• FRESH PAINT
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW AWNINGS
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Negotiable home park paperwork (HPP)
• Financial info: Deposit listed at $3,000 (per park listing); Dec numbers and label/insignia: CAL2304, CAL352596, CAL352597
• HOA & community: Park deposit and new space rent: verify with park; Park allows all ages

Exterior

• Security: On-site security person (park)
• Utilities: 220V electric; Natural gas
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home (Oak Manor trade name); 56 feet long by 24 feet wide; Manufactured April 22, 1988; Located in Boulders II park, space number 124; Park amenities include clubhouse/rec room, gym, pool, and on-site security
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Skirted; Manufactured by 90002 Skyline, model 6502; Serial numbers: 06720376AX, 06720376BX
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Awning; Shed; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range and oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Wall/window evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Washer; Refrigerator; Gas range and oven; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $285k implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.96%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #120	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$268,000	$199	87
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #142	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$175,000	$130	85
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #79	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-1%)	8mo	$200,000	$151	81
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Blvd #43	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$150,000	$120	76
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #76	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$170,000	$118	76
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #47	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	7mo	$209,000	$167	72
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #6	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$210,000	$168	69
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #3	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	10mo	$224,000	$154	67
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #148	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+10%)	11mo	$235,000	$159	64
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 178	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	10mo	$182,000	$152	64
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 263	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$189,000	$164	63
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #122	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$239,000	$207	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $27,200
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $110,712
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $1,195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,356	-5% $1,275	+0% $1,195	+5% $1,114	+10% $1,033
Rent	-10% $906	-5% $1,051	+0% $1,195	+5% $1,339	+10% $1,483
Rate	-1.0pp $1,338	-0.5pp $1,267	base $1,195	+0.5pp $1,121	+1.0pp $1,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Grandview Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1494	$2,995	$2.00	0d	1	0.71mi
3713 West Avenue M 11 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	0d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $285,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2012-07-24
    soldstatus $42,900 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    NICELY KEPT mobile home in BOULDERS at the Ranch II! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Living Room with a Fireplace, Indoor Laundry Area, Covered Porch and is nicely landscaped. This is a STANDARD SALE!!

18. 2012-05-30
    listed $42,900 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    NICELY KEPT mobile home in BOULDERS at the Ranch II! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, Living Room with a Fireplace, Indoor Laundry Area, Covered Porch and is nicely landscaped. This is a STANDARD SALE!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,266/yr (+$105/mo · 140.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,503
• − Management: −$3,503
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $10,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,449
• After-tax cash flow: $11,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+564.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $285,000 AVMLS
• 2012-07-24 Sold (MLS) $42,900 AVMLS
• 2012-05-30 Listed $42,900 AVMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $900 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.