1314 Ella St · El Campo, TX 77437

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 333 Days on market

Built 1944 6,124 sqft lot $116/sqft · 19% above area Est $63k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,124 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1944

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.2% in El Campo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime D-.
• El Campo ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #387 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.48%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,090
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 18.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1306 Barbara St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	728 (+12%)	16mo	$58,240	$80	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $10,659
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $38,611
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77437

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $497/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $590

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 332 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 331 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 330 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 325 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 324 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $75,000 Active 323 DOM
10. 2025-11-10
    price $75,000
11. 2025-07-10
    listed $85,000 Active
12. 2024-01-12
    soldstatus
13. 2023-07-21
    historical
14. 2023-02-09
    price $45,000
15. 2023-01-23
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $497 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 176.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$497
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$783
• After-tax cash flow: $3,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Campo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,351
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5102
• State rank: #387 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Campo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,886
• Population (ZIP): 18,886

Population outlook (Wharton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,448 people
• By 2030: 42,726 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 43,042 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 43,368 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 44,962 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 44,510 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Wharton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.8% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.78%
• Current HPI: 181.5905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $45,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Listed $50,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $497 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.