864 Granville Dr · Houston, TX 77091

$94,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1940 7,701 sqft lot Est $181k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,701 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor bedrooms); Built in 1940
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (both approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: 2 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,683/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.90%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6828 Knox St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,177 (-2%)	8mo	$240,000	$204	78
6827 Tuskegee	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-1%)	8mo	$225,000	$189	67
6519 Arabella St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,206 (+0%)	14mo	$150,000	$124	64
931 Lucky St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	6mo	$120,000	$96	59
894 N Victory Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,130 (-6%)	5mo	$165,000	$146	56
885 W Little York Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	12mo	$155,000	$115	55
754 Prosper St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (+1%)	8mo	$99,900	$82	55
774 Green Meadow Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+8%)	14mo	$195,000	$150	54
797 Millville Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (+12%)	13mo	$249,900	$185	51
955 Lucky St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-12%)	1mo	$110,000	$103	46
862 Rachel St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+8%)	4mo	$275,900	$213	46
882 Fortune St St	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,379 (+14%)	0mo	$265,000	$192	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-4,600
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,457
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77091

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,228/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7486 N Shepherd Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,290	$1.10	43d	1	0.67mi
783 Fortune St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1328	$1,795	$1.35	17d	1	0.76mi
1010 Junell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	24d	1	0.79mi
8108 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.87mi
8110 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.88mi
8112 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.88mi
8118 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.92mi
8120 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	0.92mi
8120 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.92mi
8122 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	0.92mi
929 Marjorie St Unit 1060806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$3,091	$2.87	7d	1	0.92mi
833 Paul Quinn St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	43d	1	0.92mi
831 Paul Quinn St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1226	$1,800	$1.47	24d	1	0.92mi
5722 # E Unit Beall St unit Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,011	$1.36	43d	1	0.93mi
5720 Beall St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,006	$1.36	43d	1	0.94mi
8306 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.94mi
8310 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.95mi
8312 De Priest St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.96mi
8312 De Priest St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	20d	1	0.96mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1722 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,230	$0.93	20d	1	1.07mi
301 W Little York Rd Unit 1322 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	20d	1	1.07mi
1825 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	787	$880	$1.12	43d	1	1.08mi
312 W Sunnyside St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,001	$1.12	43d	1	1.11mi
714 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1296	$1,094	$0.84	43d	1	1.19mi
1200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,050	$1.12	2d	12	1.21mi
1464 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $94,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$2,228
• − Insurance: −$5,588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $1,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $1,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,728
• Household income: $35,432
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3210.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 45% Two or more races 15% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.19%
• Current HPI: 283.7523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $94,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,228 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.