2852 N Shore Dr · Suffolk, VA 23435

$263,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1962 0.31 ac lot Est $325k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom Ranch home with large yard and detached garage in the Nansemond Shores neighborhood. Enjoy the deck and large back yard that is fully fenced in.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Large yard
• Deck

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Garage approximately 320 sq. ft.
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power (implied by electric water heater)
• Home design: Detached ranch-style home; Single-story; Built on a slab foundation; Lot approximately 0.31 acres
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back and full wood fence; Fenced yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom with an attached full bathroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Ceramic flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceramic and laminate flooring; Bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Florence Bowser Elementary (math 52% / reading 75%, grade B, #460 of 1,108 statewide, top 42%, 831 students, 64% FRL); Nansemond River High (math 44% / reading 87%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,698 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.6%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,350 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.28%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,870
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2833 Country Club Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+2%)	1mo	$343,500	$253	86
2800 S Nansemond Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-0%)	10mo	$325,000	$245	77
2744 Nansemond Cres	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-2%)	9mo	$323,000	$249	70
2816 N Nansemond Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	11mo	$320,000	$229	66
5517 Lake Rd	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,419 (+7%)	4mo	$289,000	$204	61
2753 Nansemond Cres	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+9%)	13mo	$320,000	$221	57
2748 S Nansemond Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,131 (-15%)	9mo	$325,000	$287	53
2745 Colonial Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,505 (+14%)	13mo	$319,000	$212	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,565
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $71,239
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23435

• Rents YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,905/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $263,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 163-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $263,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,905 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$2,905
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$1,166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $3,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 33,721
• Household income: $111,700
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1074.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 36% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.93%
• Current HPI: 162.3775
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.61%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+26.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $263,000 REINMLS
• 2023-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $308,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-05 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-03-29 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-03-24 Listed $299,900 REINMLS
• 2019-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-23 Pending — REINMLS
• 2019-10-11 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2019-08-19 Price Changed $197,000 REINMLS
• 2019-06-21 Listed $208,000 REINMLS
• 2019-06-11 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-03-28 Listed $208,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,905 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.