8001 E Carefree Dr · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,325,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,737 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1996 1.59 ac lot $484/sqft · 35% above area Est $1315k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a 1.6-acre parcel in the heart of Carefree, this private desert retreat offers space, views, and versatility just moments from CIVANA Wellness Resort & Spa and approximately one mile from downtown Carefree. The main residence features an open, light-filled layout with mountain views from the kitchen, living areas, and patio. A flexible floor plan includes three bedrooms--one currently used as a den--and three baths. The kitchen is appointed with newer stainless steel appliances. A 924 sq ft detached guest casita offers its own living room, kitchen, bedroom, washer/dryer, and private patio--ideal for guests or extended stays. Surrounded by natural desert landscape, this property delivers privacy and a relaxed Carefree lifestyle.

Key facts

• Mountain views
• 1.59 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE DESERT RETREAT
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DETACHED GUEST CASITA
• NATURAL DESERT LANDSCAPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.32M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.31M (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.14M (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.14M (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $81k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$145k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.25M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $700k; list at $1.32M implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,142,028 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,314,850
• List price: $1,325,000
• Delta: 0.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37229 N Winding Wash Trl	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,952 (+8%)	1mo	$1,650,000	$559	62
7829 E Carefree Estates Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,506 (-8%)	5mo	$750,000	$299	61
37760 N Concho Dr	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,853 (+4%)	2mo	$1,249,000	$438	59
7787 E Verde Vista Trl	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,910 (+6%)	7mo	$1,156,250	$397	57
7531 E Carefree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,813 (+3%)	1mo	$1,425,000	$507	57
37646 N Dream St	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,972 (+9%)	10mo	$1,385,000	$466	52
8529 E Carefree Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,712 (-1%)	6mo	$965,000	$356	49
36833 N Long Rifle Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,435 (-11%)	7mo	$1,225,000	$503	47
37615 N Tranquil Trl	0.50mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,992 (+9%)	11mo	$1,165,000	$389	47
37170 N Greythorn Cir	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,910 (+6%)	12mo	$1,025,000	$352	45
37095 N Bloody Basin Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	3,046 (+11%)	6mo	$1,540,000	$506	40
37202 NE Greythorn Cir	0.49mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,088 (+13%)	13mo	$1,415,000	$458	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $384,485
• Equity at exit: $843,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $1,135,312
• Equity at exit: $1,540,040

Cash invested: $371,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,948
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,656 /mo · $19,875/yr
• Insurance: −$552
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,398
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,591

Max offer price $1,305,501

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $331,250
• Closing costs: $39,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Easy St #19 Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$3,900	$2.11	7d	1	0.85mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	43d	1	0.85mi
1063 N Boulder Dr Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3035	$12,000	$3.95	43d	1	1.10mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	43d	1	1.13mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0–4.0	3.5–4.5	3008	$20,000	$6.65	24d	4	1.26mi
1314 Coyote Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2786	$12,000	$4.31	43d	1	1.28mi
6945 E Stevens Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	4.0	3583	$12,000	$3.35	43d	1	1.40mi
3105 Arroyo Hondo Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3156	$17,000	$5.39	11d	1	1.43mi
1404 Boulder Pass Carefree, AZ	3.0	2.5	2862	$12,000	$4.19	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,325,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $1,325,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $1,325,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $1,325,000 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Set on a 1.6-acre parcel in the heart of Carefree, this private desert retreat offers space, views, and versatility just moments from CIVANA Wellness Resort & Spa and approximately one mile from downtown Carefree. The main residence features an open, light-filled layout with mountain views from the kitchen, living areas, and patio. A flexible floor plan includes three bedrooms--one currently used as a den--and three baths. The kitchen is appointed with newer stainless steel appliances. A 924 sq ft detached guest casita offers its own living room, kitchen, bedroom, washer/dryer, and private patio--ideal for guests or extended stays. Surrounded by natural desert landscape, this property delivers privacy and a relaxed Carefree lifestyle.

16. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus $700,000 Closed 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

17. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus $700,000

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

18. 2020-03-12
    status Pending 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

19. 2020-02-20
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

20. 2019-11-22
    status Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

21. 2019-11-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

22. 2019-10-17
    listed $725,000 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Resume showing-until 2/25/2020 Carefree residence on a large 1.6 acre parcel. Close to the new Civana Wellness Resort. Downtown Carefree is about 1 mile away. Back mountain views from the kitchen, living room and patio. Three bedrooms in main house, one is currently being used as a den/office. Three baths in main house. Two car garage. Newer stainless steel appliances in kitchen. Exceptional 924 sq. ft.guest casita has living room, kitchen and bedroom with washer /dryer and own patio space. A wonderful retreat or a great investment for use as a rental. Home is available for short or long term RENTAL 3600.00 per month

23. 2019-06-14
    historical
24. 2018-12-13
    listed $725,000 Active
25. 2018-07-07
    historical
26. 2018-03-30
    listed $795,000 Active
27. 1996-02-16
    soldstatus $292,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $137,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$74,221
• − Property taxes: −$19,875
• − Insurance: −$6,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,963
• − Management: −$10,963
• − Depreciation: −$38,545
• Taxable loss: −$24,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,796
• After-tax cash flow: $4,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+353.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $1,325,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $700,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-23 Sold (MLS) $700,000 ARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-02-20 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-11-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2019-11-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-10-17 Listed $725,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-12-13 Listed $725,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2018-03-30 Listed $795,000 ARMLS
• 1996-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $292,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,164 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.