21621 Sandia #128 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2005 $98/sqft · 16% above area Est $125k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a 55+ senior park. This home was built in 2005 has a large living room and a nice size kitchen with a center island. It is 1478 square feet with a big master bedroom and master bath. The master bedroom has two closets one is a walk in. The master bath also has a nice size closet. Split floor plan. It is located on the green belt so you have grass in the front that you don't have to mow. The back yard has a covered patio and pavers with just a few trees and bushes to take care off. Nice easy maintenance. The clubhouse has plenty of activities to take part in. Also has a exercise room, pool table and library. A nice size swimming pool for relief from the summer heat. # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Cable TV, Garage Door Opener, SkylightREAR Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2 # of RV Spaces: 0

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Newer carpet
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEWER CARPET
• ATTRACTIVE LAMINATE FLOORING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE MASTER BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road access; Directions: Bear Valley Rd to Navajo, south to corner of Sandia
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Senior community; Park name: Mountain View Villas; Monthly land lease of $786

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Driveway parking; 2 parking spaces (including 2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Model LS3248J90; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Mobile home, approximately 15 ft wide by 48 ft long; Single-story
• Exterior features: Community pool; Located in foothills

Interior

• Kitchen: Corian counters; Kitchen island
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level living; Entry on main level; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vanguard Preparatory (1,135 students, 69% FRL); Apple Valley High (2,206 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $145k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.25%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,296
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 15.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21621 Sandia #83	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-2%)	3mo	$100,000	$69	95
21621 Sandia Rd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+6%)	1mo	$112,000	$71	89
21621 Sandia Rd #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+6%)	9mo	$105,000	$67	83
21621 Sandia Rd #105	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-3%)	12mo	$144,900	$101	80
21621 Sandia Rd #163	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-6%)	14mo	$150,000	$108	78
21621 Sandia Rd #10	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+10%)	8mo	$160,000	$99	77
21621 Sandia Rd #127	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	4mo	$155,000	$119	77
21621 Sandia Rd #95	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-12%)	6mo	$139,000	$107	75
21621 Sandia Rd #92	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	14mo	$119,000	$89	74
21621 Sandia Rd #32	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	10mo	$105,000	$81	72
21621-100 Sandia Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-13%)	12mo	$115,000	$90	66
21939 Del Oro Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+7%)	14mo	$350,000	$221	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $20,600
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $82,379
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,166

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $692	+0% $651	+5% $610	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $494	-5% $573	+0% $651	+5% $730	+10% $808
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $688	base $651	+0.5pp $614	+1.0pp $575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	46d	1	0.63mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	22d	1	0.66mi
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	46d	1	0.74mi
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	19d	1	1.03mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	26d	1	1.14mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	7d	1	1.17mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,400	$1.51	5d	1	1.23mi
21777 Panoche Rd Unit 5 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,450	$1.56	7d	1	1.23mi
10868 Kiowa Rd Unit D Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.32mi
12401 Tesuque Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,245	$1.49	46d	1	1.40mi
10547 Cochiti Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	927	$1,649	$1.78	46d	1	1.42mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	46d	1	1.42mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	0d	1	1.44mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $145,000 Active 1585-char remark
17. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $62,500 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a 55+ senior park. This home was built in 2005 has a large living room and a nice size kitchen with a center island. It is 1478 square feet with a big master bedroom and master bath. The master bedroom has two closets one is a walk in. The master bath also has a nice size closet. Split floor plan. It is located on the green belt so you have grass in the front that you don't have to mow. The back yard has a covered patio and pavers with just a few trees and bushes to take care off. Nice easy maintenance. The clubhouse has plenty of activities to take part in. Also has a exercise room, pool table and library. A nice size swimming pool for relief from the summer heat. # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Cable TV, Garage Door Opener, SkylightREAR Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2 # of RV Spaces: 0

18. 2019-03-24
    listed $67,000 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Great 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a 55+ senior park. This home was built in 2005 has a large living room and a nice size kitchen with a center island. It is 1478 square feet with a big master bedroom and master bath. The master bedroom has two closets one is a walk in. The master bath also has a nice size closet. Split floor plan. It is located on the green belt so you have grass in the front that you don't have to mow. The back yard has a covered patio and pavers with just a few trees and bushes to take care off. Nice easy maintenance. The clubhouse has plenty of activities to take part in. Also has a exercise room, pool table and library. A nice size swimming pool for relief from the summer heat. # of RV Spaces: 0 Special Features: Cable TV, Garage Door Opener, SkylightREAR Lot Location Type: Standard Location FireplaceFeatures: None Zoning: Residential 1 # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 2 # of RV Spaces: 0

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $6,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+116.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) $62,500 CRMLS
• 2019-03-24 Listed $67,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · +157.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.