8140 Fm 513 S · East Tawakoni, TX 75453

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1986 0.95 ac lot $169/sqft · 16% above area Est $172k · 16% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This quaint 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly one acre and features a beautiful, park-like setting with towering pine trees and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home offers a functional layout, solid construction, and traditional exterior—ready for updates and your personal vision. A detached workshop and additional carport provide added flexibility for storage, hobbies, or projects. Conveniently located near Lake Tawakoni State Park, with easy access to hiking, camping, and renowned fishing.

Key facts

• Lake-area location
• Additional carport
• Detached workshop

Tags

• TREED LOT
• TOWERING PINES
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• ADDITIONAL CARPORT
• LAKE-AREA LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 38% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,918
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 15.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4601 County Road 3416	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,144 (-3%)	10mo	$65,000	$57	62
8095 County Road 3415	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,282 (+9%)	9mo	$85,900	$67	57
4230 Pueblo	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-10%)	8mo	$89,900	$85	49
7725 Cochise	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-5%)	20mo	$175,000	$156	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $107,890
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $318,205
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $197,540

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $48	+0% $-8	+5% $-65	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-77	+0% $-8	+5% $61	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $42	base $-8	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Rs County Road 1605 Unit 1605 Point, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$1,750	$1.94	46d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $209,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This quaint 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly one acre and features a beautiful, park-like setting with towering pine trees and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home offers a functional layout, solid construction, and traditional exterior—ready for updates and your personal vision. A detached workshop and additional carport provide added flexibility for storage, hobbies, or projects. Conveniently located near Lake Tawakoni State Park, with easy access to hiking, camping, and renowned fishing.

16. 2026-04-05
    price $229,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This quaint 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly one acre and features a beautiful, park-like setting with towering pine trees and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home offers a functional layout, solid construction, and traditional exterior—ready for updates and your personal vision. A detached workshop and additional carport provide added flexibility for storage, hobbies, or projects. Conveniently located near Lake Tawakoni State Park, with easy access to hiking, camping, and renowned fishing.

17. 2026-03-22
    listed $249,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This quaint 2-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on nearly one acre and features a beautiful, park-like setting with towering pine trees and plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors. The home offers a functional layout, solid construction, and traditional exterior—ready for updates and your personal vision. A detached workshop and additional carport provide added flexibility for storage, hobbies, or projects. Conveniently located near Lake Tawakoni State Park, with easy access to hiking, camping, and renowned fishing.

18. 2018-09-21
    soldstatus
19. 1996-05-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,171 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2018-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,171 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.