15848 Cr 472 · Lindale, TX 75706

$287,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2015 0.54 ac lot $197/sqft · 18% below area Est $351k · 18% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom brick home offering 1,458 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.54 acre lot. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Tyler address and highly sought-after Lindale ISD schools sitting just a few minutes from Lindale but outside city limits for added freedom and fewer restrictions. This home features a 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport, perfect for extra parking, boat storage, or hobby space. Inside, you'll find a cozy layout with split bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional kitchen and dining room overlooking the backyard and covered patio. Upgraded features include quartz countertops, real wood blinds throughout, extra outlets in the pantry and garage perfect for small aplliances and tools, and an induction stove. The large lot provides room to garden, play, or simply relax under the East Texas sky. Whether you're looking for your first home, downsizing, or investing, this property offers incredible value, location, and flexibility. Come see what country living close to town feels like!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• 2 car carport
• Spacious lot

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,199 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,565
• List price: $287,500
• Delta: -17.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $65,358
• Equity at exit: $193,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $213,080
• Equity at exit: $363,654

Cash invested: $80,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75706

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $204,133

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,875
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15996 FM 849 Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,425	$1.32	21d	1	1.39mi
219 Texas Dr Hideaway, TX	3.0	3.0	1512	$2,250	$1.49	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   price $287,500 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom brick home offering 1,458 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.54 acre lot. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Tyler address and highly sought-after Lindale ISD schools sitting just a few minutes from Lindale but outside city limits for added freedom and fewer restrictions. This home features a 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport, perfect for extra parking, boat storage, or hobby space. Inside, you'll find a cozy layout with split bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional kitchen and dining room overlooking the backyard and covered patio. Upgraded features include quartz countertops, real wood blinds throughout, extra outlets in the pantry and garage perfect for small aplliances and tools, and an induction stove. The large lot provides room to garden, play, or simply relax under the East Texas sky. Whether you're looking for your first home, downsizing, or investing, this property offers incredible value, location, and flexibility. Come see what country living close to town feels like!

2. 2026-01-13
   historical
3. 2026-01-12
   listed $299,999 Active 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom brick home offering 1,458 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious 0.54 acre lot. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a Tyler address and highly sought-after Lindale ISD schools sitting just a few minutes from Lindale but outside city limits for added freedom and fewer restrictions. This home features a 2-car garage plus a 2-car carport, perfect for extra parking, boat storage, or hobby space. Inside, you'll find a cozy layout with split bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional kitchen and dining room overlooking the backyard and covered patio. Upgraded features include quartz countertops, real wood blinds throughout, extra outlets in the pantry and garage perfect for small aplliances and tools, and an induction stove. The large lot provides room to garden, play, or simply relax under the East Texas sky. Whether you're looking for your first home, downsizing, or investing, this property offers incredible value, location, and flexibility. Come see what country living close to town feels like!

4. 2025-08-04
   listed $310,000 Active
5. 2015-05-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,975 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,261 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,287/yr (+$107/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$8,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lindale

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #2100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,238
• Population (ZIP): 10,975

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Current HPI: 234.9412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $287,500 GTAR
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $299,999 GTAR
• 2025-08-04 Listed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2015-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+151.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,975 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.