9 Holly Ln · Duluth, MN 55810

$92,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition Est $165k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living close to lots of amenities including the bus route. 3-Bedroom, 2 bath, large kitchen, lots of sunlight, so clean & ready to move in & enjoy. Feature newer appliances, a deck, a fenced in yard area, & a 1 car garage.

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• Deck
• Close to amenities

Tags

• CLOSE TO AMENITIES
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• DECK
• FENCED IN YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking; Detached garage space for 1 vehicle (garage approx. 16 x 28)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas fuel; Electric service by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; One level
• Construction: Steel siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built area/above-grade finished area approx. 1,216
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Paved streets access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (Main level) approximately 14.7 x 12.11; Bedroom 2 (Main level) approximately 12.4 x 9.10; Bedroom 3 (Main level) approximately 9.5 x 8.11
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including a private primary and a main-floor full bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Private primary bathroom; Main-floor full bathroom; Kitchen/dining room combination; 3 bedrooms on one level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Proctor Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #177 of 301 in MN (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($640 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $89,725 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.36%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Kalmia Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$70	92
7 Greenbriar Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$66	92
48 Arbutus Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$70,000	$58	84
33 Ivy Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	2mo	$98,500	$76	82
9234 Brook St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$245,000	$201	68
4 Plumtree Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-12%)	8mo	$79,900	$75	58
110 Grove St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,156 (-5%)	5mo	$271,000	$234	57
9235 Meadow St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,309 (+8%)	10mo	$179,000	$137	45
8 4th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+13%)	1mo	$175,000	$128	45
111 2nd St	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,332 (+10%)	1mo	$310,000	$233	44
9123 Brook St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,091 (-10%)	7mo	$220,000	$202	41
132 1st St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-12%)	12mo	$145,000	$136	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $74,255
• Equity at exit: $83,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.72×
• Total profit: $199,945
• Equity at exit: $179,707

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55810

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $92,500 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,500 Contingent - Inspection 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    historical Contingent - Inspection
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $92,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Affordable living close to lots of amenities including the bus route. 3-Bedroom, 2 bath, large kitchen, lots of sunlight, so clean & ready to move in & enjoy. Feature newer appliances, a deck, a fenced in yard area, & a 1 car garage.

19. 2026-05-08
    listed $92,500 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Affordable living close to lots of amenities including the bus route. 3-Bedroom, 2 bath, large kitchen, lots of sunlight, so clean & ready to move in & enjoy. Feature newer appliances, a deck, a fenced in yard area, & a 1 car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $3,214
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with some minor repairs needed. It's move-in ready and has a good curb appeal. A fresh coat of paint and some minor updates will significantly enhance its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance, could benefit from a fresh coat of paint
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning and possibly a fresh coat of sealant
• Minor Bathroom shower curtain — Worn appearance, could be replaced for a fresh look

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets and countertops — Fresh paint and sealant will make the kitchen look more appealing and modern
• Resale Replace bathroom shower curtain — A new shower curtain will improve the bathroom's appearance and make it more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance, could benefit from a fresh coat of paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning and possibly a fresh coat of sealant	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom shower curtain · Worn appearance, could be replaced for a fresh look	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets and countertops — Fresh paint and sealant will make the kitchen look more appealing and modern ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom shower curtain — A new shower curtain will improve the bathroom's appearance and make it more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Proctor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,151
• Composite: 38.84/100
• National rank: #4106
• State rank: #177 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• City population: 71,097
• Population (ZIP): 8,305

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.59%
• Current HPI: 515.02
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $92,500 LSAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $92,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid