9014 Gulf Shore Ter · Ellenton, FL 34219

$347,150

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $383k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An open floorplan is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen in this single-story home. Separate from three secondary bedrooms, the serene owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom designed for tranquil shared living. Completing the home is a two-car garage for storage and other versatile needs.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 9014 Gulf Shore Ter, Parrish, FL 34219; Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $342,150

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,936

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Hartford plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-450/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $298,935 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8822 Bahama Mia Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-6%)	1mo	$362,000	$198	83
9432 Bella Mar Trl	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,045 (+6%)	1mo	$390,000	$191	77
9423 Bella Mar Trl	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,045 (+6%)	4mo	$415,000	$203	73
8808 Clear View St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-14%)	0mo	$334,000	$201	72
8814 Bahama Mia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-14%)	1mo	$337,000	$202	64
9990 Last Light Gln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,933 (-0%)	9mo	$399,999	$207	58
9880 Last Light Gln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,933 (-0%)	8mo	$359,999	$186	57
9825 Last Light Gln	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,110 (+9%)	2mo	$385,000	$182	55
8510 Sea Ray Run	0.13mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,215 (+14%)	10mo	$350,000	$158	55
9009 Sandy Shores St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-14%)	2mo	$400,000	$241	54
9814 Daybreak Gln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,018 (+4%)	4mo	$379,000	$188	51
9872 Last Light Gln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+9%)	9mo	$369,000	$175	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-67,356
• Equity at exit: $51,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-95,400
• Equity at exit: $30,015

Cash invested: $97,202 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,820
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,207/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,037

Max offer price $341,725

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $82	+0% $-37	+5% $-157	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-156	+0% $-37	+5% $81	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $51	base $-37	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,788
• Closing costs: $10,414
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	0.07mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	17d	1	0.12mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	3d	32	0.24mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	17d	1	0.25mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	25d	1	0.28mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	25d	1	0.32mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	25d	1	0.35mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	16d	1	0.59mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	0.68mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.68mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	0.78mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	3d	24	0.92mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	0.96mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	25d	1	1.01mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	5d	1	1.11mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	12d	1	1.12mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	1.19mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $347,150 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $342,150 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,150 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 319-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $342,150 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,207
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,870
• − Management: −$2,870
• − Depreciation: −$10,099
• Taxable loss: −$6,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home features a modern open floor plan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B